This week: AUSTRALIA, the G5 currency leading risk assets post-COVID. Christopher Joye, Coolabah Capital Investments co-CIO aka "the hunter of Australian housing bears" interviewed by Joe Walker of the Jolly Swagman Podcast, as they cover the RBA's easing policy inflating Australia's housing bubble and narrowing credit spreads, spotting opportunities as the RBA remains on a long path of accommodation.
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Busy week? We know. Luckily, you can catch up with the best Videos Of The Week, individually hand picked as always by the RV Team below. Enjoy the weekend!
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Cross Asset Thoughts:
- SPX vs VIX vs AUDJPY
- Crude volatility vs Gold vs BTC,
- Gold vs Yen,
- Turkey vs Lira vs Gold
- Bitcoin vs Yuan
- the long NKY trade
I suppose it would be quite hypocritical to talk about proactive value contribution / extraction without attempting to do any of my own.
Been a “while“ but the following are some of my current market observations and views:
🇺🇸 SPX: Post election active vol selling crushes VIX and pushes SPX ↑
But with VIX at 20, is that a hard floor / cap to further SPX upside?
VIX could be floored & rangebound flat in the low 20s, but SPX can still catch a bid higher off AUDJPY, which had recently broken through recent highs and approaching its YTD levels. AUD can continue to move SPX ↑ at least until Dec FOMC, when Fed once again does nothing on US YCC, at which point AUD ↓.
AUD break through recent highs, looking at early Sept highs when they announced -7% GDP and first recession in 30 years.
As long as AUD is lifted and VIX / VVIX stays behaved, there’s still a lot of underweight institutions going into bonus season- SPX ↑ near term.
Note the week starting Mon Dec 14th may see some potentially serious ↑↓ swings, starting with Dec 14 when the electoral college meets - this officially shuts the book on Trump voting related lawsuits, but just in case you get a rogue elector (highly unlikely but... (More)
The Discourse is a weekly program with Weston from the Exchange, taking the Hive Mind to the markets, and far more importantly- taking markets into the depths of the Hive Mind.
The key feature of The Discourse is for Weston to speak directly with individuals from The Exchange community, to explore and tap into the vast wealth of individual knowledge, expertise, skills and talents - both financial AND non-financially related - in order to proactively extract and distribute expertise, knowledge and value.
The special debut episode features ExChangemaker @Sam Colt the “Newmont Gold Mining” of value extraction. Sam gives his pro tips and step-by-step best practices on how to make an effective post, get answers to questions, and maximize the Exchange experience. A must watch for anyone who wants to be effective in tapping into the collective wisdom of the financial world‘s most ambitious and intellectually curious minds.