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BTC thoughts

1 Log chart only for this asset class. Weekly chart is king. 4 hour is what traders are using.

2 Lower bound of trend channel from the 2017-18 run up ended up being the resistance needed to stop the recent leg up. The uppper side of that same trend channel hits 310k in late September... wide range of possibilities here.

3 the ~460% rise from the potential first leg when applied to this leg takes up to the upper bound of the current channel potentially at near 330k around late November fucking crazy awesome and symmetric. The attitude of BTC right now seems to be enjoying the game and being confounding volatile and obvious all at once. It's a great show to watch. Right now it is picking the sheeps' wool from its teeth after a generous meal.

4 The steepness of the escape velocity right now is absurd. On the 4hour (traders' chart) we are in the early stages of a leg 5 set to break the upper bound of the trading range after springing up last week. On chain metrics are sick (good) as well.

5 ADA chart is still the best of the investible group. To quote a favorite band, "Leave it all up in the air, Ada." -The National

Macro has changes for the entire class (not just BTC) as this point as everyone who is going to get it has gotten the fact the we need something new to pull the American Economy up by... (More)

Global Macro + Crypto Technicals 3

Time to dive deep into some of the charts that are in play in the global macro space.

KWEB (China Internet ETF) is down a serious amount over the last few days. We are now threatening to break a trend line that is going back almost 6 years. Today's volume also happened to be the highest in the ETF's history.

Small caps are trading like it is 2003. This was an analog that I discovered a couple of days ago. I think this might be more of interest for @Raoul Pal given how tight the market has been trading with rates.

To follow up with that chart, here is a chart of 10-year yields overlaid with the Russell 2000 Future. It is not a conincidince. Banks and energy are large components of the Russell 2000 and they have been quite sensitive to the volatility of the yield curve over the last month or tow.

But this is no different to the regional bank play. Bullish on growth and yields? Look for upside in the regional bank ETF (KRE)

Keep in mind with KRE that we just hit an important low from a technical perspective.

Longer term, EURUSD looks very good for upside on a risk-reward basis from here.

Closer view of the Euro.

Still looking for 45k on BTCUSD

Tezos holding trend (XTZ)

If real yields start to drift higher, gold is going to go lower. Long Gold and short stocks is not a long term very good trade, but... (More)

[Update] GBTC discount is still showing signs of bottoming, IMO worth keeping an eye on.

This is a quick update to the idea expressed here:

Right now, I don't know what exactly is the cause for the sudden turn in Bitcoin, and I already am happy with my exposure so I am not doing anything right now.

We have so much noise with Tether currently that I am not sure anyone can be sure of being right. What I do know is that GBTC is slightly removed from potential Tether "buck breaking" since no one who is trading it will be trying to get into or out of Tether to do so. Doesn't mean they won't get washed out if Tether does what the FUD pushers believe will happen, but anyone buying it we can be reasonably sure isn't doing so to escape Tether.

Thus, I am keeping a close eye on the discount levels to see how it is behaving relative to the value of its bitcoin holdings. And the discount right now as of this writing is still showing signs of turning around.

I am tracking the 14 day SMA right now, and even on that last dip prior to this weekend's price action, we didn't see the discount get back to the lowest point that it was in May. So momentum-wise, it looks like GBTC is closing the relative value gap with Bitcoin.

What does that mean? My guess is that some of this price action we are seeing at least is encouraging more people to participate on the long side.... (More)