Deflation

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1 question

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What will really bake your noodle is the Quad 1 portfolio has outperformed the benchmark since the start of the quarter.

What I will caution is during the Q4 2018 Christmas Rally sorry I mean massacre the Quad 4 call was wrong for a month, then out of nowhere in October Santa had started to drink, November he was hanging out of his sleigh, and the less we speak about December the better.

This is not a normal month in a normal quarter in a normal year. Roll with the punches if you are unable to pivot allocate a larger cash position until vol reduces. If you day trade increase your allocation to things that work best in both Quad3 and Quad4.

The quads seem kind of relative to me. The price action of the dollar, commodities and vol is what I think about. With the dollar having a drop the past couple days, I think that is significant for how the other assets will react. I kind of think of the movement of the different things fractally. So like you can have the dollar trending down and have a quad 3 quarter with little spikes in the dollar and maybe you can call it a quad 4 week or day? I don't really care as much about the titles as much as the movement and velocity of the actual indicators moving. So the whole % of which quad we are in seems a little relative to me. There are confirming and disconfirming indicators. LIke today the dollar was down, most of the commodities were up but oil was down. Oil is a major indicator for what is happening but its saying something different. So what is the answer? In my mind you gotta make a decision under uncertainty when you have contradictory details. Plus, a lot of times if you set up the trade right then it doesn't matter if one of the indicators is saying the opposite.

On top of that.....the volatility of things is so choppy right now that things are not trending well so its hard to stay in a specific "qaud" for a while. We will see what happens. At the end fo the day, can we... (More)

Not surprised.  If you look at Darius' quad chart , especially over time, there are fairly significant swings.  Vol of their various data series I'm guessing makes for those swings.  Remember their Quads are NOT the business cycle. Looking at their list of what works in each quad, which they say was developed with back testing (I hope I got that right) seems to trigger on the volatility of each group. I don't think they care about causation just correlation.  Hope this helps.

It always sounded like the Quad 3 vs Quad 4 call was 50/50 for Q4. So it could turn Quad 4 again. Quad 3 is 49.3% probable and Quad 4 is 48.2% ... a toss-up. Sounds like the main drivers in the shift are USD ⬇ and inflation ⬆.