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Derivatives & Options Trading
Derivatives & Options Trading
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Commodity Trade Exchange

Hey guys hope everyone is doing well!

As we are entering into this year, talk about commodities has been at the forefront for people who are trying to stay ahead. I posted something recently about rare earth materials and was surprised to see how many people commented and were interested. 

So let's do this, next week why don't we throw together a video with our best trade idea connected to commodities, precious metals, rare earth, ev materials or something along those lines. I'll record a short video with each person and then throw them all together so that we can all benefit from the knowledge. #doyouevencommoditybro

Basically, if you provide your investment thesis, instrument/exposure, timeline and risks then we can make a short video on it.  

Who is down? Comment here or shoot me a message and let's do this!

INTEREST RATE MADNESS - Breaking down why defensive stocks are getting toasted (feat. charts on TLT/SPY, Utilities as a ... rising real rates, and much much more)

The Breakdown is BACK! @Nick Correa and I decided we couldn't let Ash and Weston have all the fun 😀  so we took a chart-heavy deep-dive into my interview with Teddy Vallee.

We explore WHY rising interest rates are clobbering not just growthy tech stocks, but other sectors as well - sectors you wouldn't typically think of. 

Lastly we attempt to redefine the mind-boggling question - what IS reflation? Is it inflation that the bond vigilantes fear - or is it that GROWTH is attracting their capital elsewhere?


 

https://vimeo.com/519722095/4f44f76160

 

@thomas cullis @Theodore Boydston @Jaymes Rosenthal @Matt Daniell @Jeff Dafoe @Sam Colt @Sean Morgan @John Ahearn @Craig P @Jeremiah S @Moritz Heiden @Bradley Snyder @Ernesto Rachitoff @Jason Higa @Hem Desai @Muddshir Hussain @Nivtej Dhaliwal @John Crockett @Lisa Gee @Ben O'Hare @Aleix Selles @Carlos Licea @Wilbert Weigend 

 

Delta hedging of the Index Skew

Hi, here I made a video that explains the Index skew and how the delta hedging of it creates regular patterns in the price of the SP500:
Many Vol funds are aware of these dynamics and have their own unique strategies that go around to capture some of the alpha that these market imbalances produces.
This video was made in collaboration with Cem Karsan; those of you who follow his Twitter feed will be well aware of how he talks a lot about "Gary" and "Vanna".
Some of the dynamics he talks about are captured in this video.
RV also did an interview with him here:
https://www.realvision.com/shows/live/videos/election-jitters-at-the-peak-of-volatility-mountain

 

https://youtu.be/ibaPuJgTgOs




This video assumes you are already aware of how market makers delta hedge gamma, vanna and charm exposures. If you are not already familiar with these, 

You can learn about delta hedging of gamma exposures here:
https://exchange.realvision.com/post/an-introduction-to-gamma-and-vanna-exposure-5fb139c4b1cafb19c82096a8

And if you don't know how vanna and charm exposures are delta hedged, you can watch this:
https://exchange.realvision.com/post/vanna-and-charm-exposures-5fce493cdbaa191ccaa724df

3/4 ARKG Trading Analysis/Observations

Following up on yesterdays post: https://exchange.realvision.com/post/ark-liquidity-risk---arkg-analysis-60405fbc3ad8d62e1eb268f9?post=604128e7df7cb7692d7b5146

Here is the ARKG chart updated for today, updated with a column for each stocks performance during the day, A/H, and aggregated, as well as daily volume - as I feel each are important metrics to evaluate as well.

I'll repost the comment I wrote this morning analyzing the data, and add my thoughts on todays trades below:

From Comment Earlier Today:

Daily Performance and Fund Flows for the applicable days are below. From this data the observations I've made are:

2/24 - Despite being down almost 12% since 2/12 and seeing -330M of outflows over the preceding two dats, I don't think ARK was too worried as they still added to CMLF (890M Market Cap), but were somewhat aware of the situation as they entirely cut Hims (2.6B Market Cap).

2/25 - Second day in a row they added SGFY in pretty big relative size. SGFY dropped 13% on 2/25, so it follows their double down strategy. They also added heavily to EDIT and ADPT despite the small market caps as they were off big drops as well. This makes me think they was betting on a bounce back, as ARK already held ~3x ADV in shares of each.

2/26 - Despite a bounce back in performance ARKG saw outflows for the 4th consecutive day, and it looks like they reached into their liquidity bag by selling GOOGL and TMO heavily in order to add to ONEM which was down over 2% on... (More)