DXY1 follower3 questions28 posts
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OK, I’m not a big follower of currency moves but I have seen multiple people talk about the DXY breaking 92 being a very important level, presuming today’s move holds we are less than 0.5% away from the 200 day moving average which would be another significant level to break above. Set lets speculate that the DXY does break above that 200 day MA soon what would you expect for
- Upside from the Dollar in terms of DXY and time period.
- Where US equities go while DXY makes that move.
Edit: I realize how poorly worded this question was. My apologies.
Can there be a market regime where treasury yields are elevated, the USD, either measured in DXY index or SL feds traded weighted dillar index, is elevated and at the same time spx/equities keep climbing. Has such a sustained regime happened before?
My thesis for the first quarter of 2021 will be for USD to go higher. My main reasoning is higher 10Y treasury yield. Of course the Fed can do YCC to tame it down. My bet is as long as there is no material shock to the S&P, they will allow yield to drift higher, especially after Biden's massive fiscal plan. Let's assume it will pass in some shape, way and form.
My second reasoning is extreme positioning. Tom, Dick and Harry's brother in laws are short of USD. Normally, it reverses when the positioning is this extreme. I wouldn't even be surprised when ECB,BOJ are starting to jawbone their own currency.
As this is my first post, I keep it short and sweet. Any thoughts? feel free to chime in