Holding Time: 2-3 quarters
This is essentially an extension of the original thesis for my ZARJPY trade, the full theses can be found here:
However, there are a few additions for platinum.
Platinum has both precious metal and industrial metal characteristics.
Despite precious metals, gold and silver, having amazing run ups this year, platinum has been a laggard and yet to make a huge run up.
Recently, gold prices have been taking a beating and although platinum price movements tend to correlate well with gold, platinum has been markedly more resistant than gold.
This is reflected in the Platinum/Gold ratio, which was stuck between 2 horizontal lines (0.45 - 0.5) but broke through mid-November. Spot price of platinum has started moving towards new 2 year highs, attempting to break through a resistance at around 1000.
The increase in industrials, as mentioned in my ZARJPY trade, coupled with a potential tailwind from the EV crowd (Platinum is used as a catalyst) also gives a potential one-off catalyst that platinum could benefit from, if MOMO and retail crowding into the EV/Green narrative on the shoulders of a Biden victory cause an impact in the markets.
Finally a weakER USD acts as a gentle tailwind for all commodities.
Possible Risk Signals:
Since the thesis is the same as the long ZARJPY trade, the risks are more or less the same,
In brief -
US10Y making a sharp move downward below 0.75 would negate this thesis in my mind.
ECRI and PMIs... (More)