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Don't buy commodity indices!

We had such a good, exchange-wide discussion on "the dollar" thanks to @Weston Nakamura and @Jack Farley taking up the mantle after my last video,  I thought we could now approach commodity exposure. With the reflation trade all the rage, how can we best get involved?

I think broad commodity indices are a poor trading vehicle and in the video I detail why? I offer some suggestions for better options. 

What is your preferred way to gain commodity exposure and why? 

https://youtu.be/Fz1YVhS-Mac

Technical Analysis on TAN and QCLN

As requested by @Jeremiah S, here is my technical take on TAN (top Solar ETF) and QCLN.

Let's start with TAN (Invesco Solar ETF). TAN is a solar ETF and its holdings include: 
ENPH, RUN, SEDG, FSLR, DQ, SCATC, HASI, SPWR, ECV, NEOEN, AY, CSIQ, CWEN


Solar sector has been a scorching hot performer in 2020.

However it has recently pulled back after going parabolic in the 4th quarter 2020.

In fact, on Friday solar was the worst performing industry and last week solar was the 2nd worst performer. (Source: FINVIZ)

Last time when solar industry had the among the worst weekly performance, it was a great dip buying opportunity however every moment is unique in the market.  

TAN is forming a very big base. What do you think? Do you see this taking out its all-time-high level? 
TAN is forming a very big base. What do you think? Do you see this taking out its all-time-high level? 
Is solar the future? I heard of people with EV charging their cars with solar panels at home. Unfortunately where I live we don't get much sunlight around this time of year. 
Even though I like the dip buying idea of this at around 100 because the momentum crossing on weekly is a big deal (especially when they are both momentum are in the overbought level), I'd rather wait for flush. 
Even though I like the dip buying idea of this at around 100 because the momentum crossing on weekly is a big deal (especially when they are both momentum are in the overbought level), I'd rather wait for flush. 
Daily momentum is also coming down rather hard. 21EMA (D) might not be enough to act as a cushion but no one knows until next week. 
Daily momentum is also coming down rather hard. 21EMA (D) might not be enough to act as a cushion but no one knows until next week. 
However there is a confluence of support levels around 100. 


Now let's go to QCLN (First Trust Nasdaq Clean Edge Green Energy ETF) and its holdings include
TSLA, ENPH, PLUG, NIO, ALB, SEDG, RUN, CREE, ON, FSLR, OLED, BLDP, LFUS, ORA

It has exposure to both EV and Solar industry. 

QCLN monthly
QCLN monthly
QCLN Weekly
QCLN Weekly
QCLN Daily
QCLN Daily

A word of caution: 

Seasonality says both TAN and QCLN have performed horribly in March historically. 

March Return (Between 2017-2020):

TAN: UP 1/4, Down 3/4, with avg return of -11.1%

QCLN: Up 1/4, Down 3/4,  with avg return of -7.0% 

So, It might be a good idea to not hold any of these into March. 

Also Looking at QCLN Options Chain,

Right now, IV is jacked up on QCLN with Current IV Percentile being 95%. 
This probably not the best time to buy QCLN options in terms of its IV. 
 

Clean Energy

Clean Energy ETFs with bullish price action while volatility is also increasing >, not a good recipe > possible pull back with IV trending up like this. 

The Emerging Dragon (Markets)

An asymmetric R:R play using OTM calls on the EEM etf:

https://www.options-course.com/post/the-emerging-dragon-markets

Cheers