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Christopher Moir
Maker of random charts that seem important 2 years later

ETF Lay of the Land - Thurs 22nd July 2021

Let me draw you back to a super important time in market history. You could not move for teets and news reports and newsletters and podcasts.

Phase 1 of the US-China trade deal.

What was meant to happen in October on a farm in Iowa finally happened over the weekend of 24th Nov 2019. Monday 25th (my birthday for future reference) markets opened all joyous rainbows and puppy dogs as far as the eye could see.

Maybe there was a problem with turkey day?

I know in hindsight it is very easy to pick these little times of panic and point and laugh. These news events are just that tiny tiles in a huge mosiac.

OPEC+ increasing production has been the news of the week coupled with Delta and our inner view Options expiry. Two days does not make a complete reversal but will this just be another tiny tile?

That said the immediate term it feels like some have breathed a sigh of relief I can see a higher low coming. A pullback not to the recent lows of Mon-Tues but just to form a higher low to build the next move.

Factors: SPHB High Beta +3.1% and more than 6% in 2days which feeds what I said above. SPLV Low Beta was the only factor down on the day -0.42%. MTUM Momentum again following XLF Financials.

Sectors: XLE Energy topping the day in equities +3.49%. What we have to watch is this second strong day in price came... (More)

Christopher Moir
Maker of random charts that seem important 2 years later

ETF Land - Wed 14th July 2021

I commented several weeks ago that for much of this year SPY as a benchmark has been in the lower half of many of the charts below. For the last 2 weeks or so that has not been the case. That is one data point that I have only picked up by looking constantly each day at the same data. Now is that an important data point? I don't know. Will it make me change an allocation this morning? No. But I have it and time will tell if it was/is important.

Many of the assets below were down on the day yesterday but volume across the board was higher and almost 50% was also higher compared to 1M/3M average volume. Is this important? Possibly. If I wasn't looking at it I wouldn't have seen it. Now you have seen it. Is it more or less important that you don't have the context that I do? Who knows.

[this is getting deep]

Now we have to discern for those assets with a positive 1m/3m price momentum are people selling "some" as a means to distribute profits. This could be in the form of adding to existing shorts to provide overall downside protection in names they think will fall the most. Or are they buying/selling to reallocate as they think a regime shift has occurred?

The honest answer is we just don't know. <- something seldom said in financial media. For many, there always has to be a reason. What if... (More)

Christopher Moir
Maker of random charts that seem important 2 years later

ETF Land - Mon 12th July 2021

Goodwood Festival of Speed is held the weekend before the British Grand Prix. I have linked a video of the top ten runs up the hill. What you will notice is all the cars are very different.

During the 80s and 90s Formula 1 went on a speed hunt. This was the era of 1600BHP Twin Turbo BMW engines that were insanity. All to try to propel the car through the air at 250MPH down the straights. The problem was that there were only 3 straights on many racetracks and perhaps only one that you could ever reach that speed. There were ~12 corners though that you had to tiptoe around to give you a good exit onto the straights.

Then the thinking changed instead of trying to go 250mph at most 1-2 on the track, why don't we go faster around the 10-12 corners. The advances in aerodynamics completely eclipsed the advances in engine design for a time. Corners in the past that required top speeds of 90-100mph could be taken at 110-120mph. By reducing the single point total top speed due to increased drag you can navigate the total lap at a higher average speed.

Anyone that has dealt with a financial adviser and perhaps many on here have said "you cannot time the market". I would argue that timing the market is the true edge in this current market regime.

January - High Short Interest

February - Cyclicals

March - Interest Rates

April - Small Caps

May... (More)

Christopher Moir
Maker of random charts that seem important 2 years later

ETF Land - Thurs 8th July 2021

No sector chitchat today I have been a busy bee..... and very drunk :)

I do not want to downplay the significant moves in global macro markets. I do want to take us back to November last year. If you remember the talk was about a bump in the VIX curve DEMs and sweeps and Trump swiping left or something sorry American politics escapes me. Well everyone was so prepared for "tax changes" and "regulation" everyone was hedged. Well, then what happened? Everyone was so hedged that the underlying was bought and the sell-off never came.

Cem Karsan is an amazing follow on twitter his daily insights into the underlying hedging dynamics are amazing. At this point who doesn't follow Cem?

Darius Dale discussed this dynamic in the Daily Briefing last night if everyone is front running the calamity then the calamity tends not to come. Very rarely is everyone correct.

This huge selloff in the long cast your minds back to April, can everyone remember when every man and his dog said the USD was breaking out?