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Christopher Moir
Maker of random charts that seem important 2 years later

ETF Lay of the Land - Mon 26th July 2021

What if in this game of chicken we can't even see the other car lights yet? What if the other driver is waiting in a Five Guys drive-thru because they know the rubber doesn't hit the road until after earnings season is finished or until September quarter-end or......

While we all think we are playing the same game I doubt anyone on this forum is playing the same game in quite the same way.

Factors: Everyone up on the week. SDY Divi Yield SPLV Low Beta at the bottom of the pile. If you look up the chart some ETFs with a close 1W performance are close to those with very different 1M/3M performance. IWF Growth MTUM Momentum is both up +3% on the week but MTUM -0.1% against +8.62% over 3M. How strange. Important? Who knows.

Sectors: XLE Energy XLU Utilities are strange bedfellows both down on the week. XLC Communications tops the chart but a huge part of that came on Friday with FB Facebook SNAP Snapchat having big moves on earnings. XLRE Real Estate looks jolly interesting here strong 1M/3M/YTD momentum and it straddles two worlds one the positive push in rents and two should the Fed have to step in fallings rates.

Fixed Income: The bond market purports to be the market of truth where all the clever ones play but to me, it looks like the one with the least direction. Now I must admit divergence of direction does not mean that as a whole... (More)

Christopher Moir
Maker of random charts that seem important 2 years later

ETF Lay of the Land - Friday 23rd July 2021

Whether you like him or not, Keith McCollough is a smart cookie. This is stolen almost entirely from a recent Macro Show and bits and bobs from myself sprinkled around the edges.

 

Gold ≠ Gold Miners = Equities

 

https://exchange.realvision.com/post/what-do-gold-miners-need-in-order-to-mine-gold-6000338aac6848f87f866ce1

 

I made a previous post here regards input costs to extract gold for the ground.

Why is gold going up? Many will say growth will slow from a base effects peak. Good point but if that is true what will you be doing from a portfolio perspective? Going into this "lower growth" period you move up the equity curve into quality. Are gold miners quality?

The chart below says no. My daily charts show where the flows are going, so from a balance of risk Gold Miners may not be the best expression of gold prices.

Just like my snide comment a couple of days ago about gold bugs not commenting about Gold up on a USD up day. They sure shout from the rafters about manipulation on Gold down with USD down days.

How perplexing will GLD up GDX down UUP up be over the coming days/weeks (months?). [I don't think months :)]

 

 

Christopher Moir
Maker of random charts that seem important 2 years later

ETF Lay of the Land - Thurs 22nd July 2021

Let me draw you back to a super important time in market history. You could not move for teets and news reports and newsletters and podcasts.

Phase 1 of the US-China trade deal.

What was meant to happen in October on a farm in Iowa finally happened over the weekend of 24th Nov 2019. Monday 25th (my birthday for future reference) markets opened all joyous rainbows and puppy dogs as far as the eye could see.

Maybe there was a problem with turkey day?

I know in hindsight it is very easy to pick these little times of panic and point and laugh. These news events are just that tiny tiles in a huge mosiac.

OPEC+ increasing production has been the news of the week coupled with Delta and our inner view Options expiry. Two days does not make a complete reversal but will this just be another tiny tile?

That said the immediate term it feels like some have breathed a sigh of relief I can see a higher low coming. A pullback not to the recent lows of Mon-Tues but just to form a higher low to build the next move.

Factors: SPHB High Beta +3.1% and more than 6% in 2days which feeds what I said above. SPLV Low Beta was the only factor down on the day -0.42%. MTUM Momentum again following XLF Financials.

Sectors: XLE Energy topping the day in equities +3.49%. What we have to watch is this second strong day in price came... (More)

Christopher Moir
Maker of random charts that seem important 2 years later

ETF Lay of the Land - Wed 21st July 2021

@Petr Pinkhasov I stole the name, hope you don't mind ;)

I talked yesterday about the mimicry of the hedge fund community. During a period of dominance at the end of the '90s in the '00s where they had a large position in the market, their winning trades and styles were mimicked by others.

What I want to discuss today is a trade that I think may not be repeated anytime soon. George Soros' shorting of Sterling against the Bank of England. The mimicry I opened with occurred when George Soros and Stan Druckenmiller by discussing openly their position permitted for others to copy. Permission was not explicit what I mean was by talking about it this gave a "smart money" safety net for other traders to do the same. Eventually, the BOE had to give in and the GBP was devalued by 25%.

Now let us separate a winning trade for a moment and think about this. In 1992 the UK had a population of 57million people. On Black Wednesday, September 16, 1992, 57million people had their wealth cut by 25%.

Today what is the trade de jour that everyone must be in? ESG. Environmental, Social and Corporate Governance. The positive flywheel is that everyone must be doing their part. Everyone must pick a side and that is the side fighting inequality, climate change and social justice et al.

Now return to Mr Soros could you see any Hedge Fund, asset allocator or investment vehicle openly backing a trade... (More)