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Federal Reserve
Federal Reserve
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Frivolity

Powell is currently speaking in front of a back drop and directly over his shoulder is a stopped clock.  Seems like an apt metaphor.   

Craig P
Independent Macro/Vol/Crypto/Quant/Fintech Nerd

Real Rates Up, Gold Goes Down

 

Craig P
Independent Macro/Vol/Crypto/Quant/Fintech Nerd

Quite the gap forming between SPX and LQD..

LQD closed below the pre-covid high last Friday. Seems worth keeping an eye on. Will we see a revival in the Fed purchasing narrative if it continues?  

The Only Thing That Matters: TGA Drawdown + Fed Purchases vs. Spending

Some people have mentioned it, but I continue to believe this is the only thing that really matters for the next 5 months. If the TGA needs to be reduced to $400B by July 31, then we are looking at a net easing, similar to a massive Fed March15-April15-2020 style injection. I would then expect subsequent tightening could mean Summer 2020 marks a transient top. The only thing that stands in the way of my thesis is that the $1.9T stimulus would at first be QT before becoming an easing as the cash finds its way into M2 deposits, however this may happen gradually enough that it doesn't matter. I also believe the net easing will affect all assets, equities/RE/gold/commodities/BTC/bonds alike with the dollar being the only real counter asset.