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Fixed Income
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Christopher Moir
Maker of random charts that seem important 2 years later

ETF Lay of the Land - Tues 27th July 2021

Sorry, no chitty chatter today I have been busy climbing trees with the boys.

Have a great day everyone.

Christopher Moir
Maker of random charts that seem important 2 years later

ETF Lay of the Land - Mon 26th July 2021

What if in this game of chicken we can't even see the other car lights yet? What if the other driver is waiting in a Five Guys drive-thru because they know the rubber doesn't hit the road until after earnings season is finished or until September quarter-end or......

While we all think we are playing the same game I doubt anyone on this forum is playing the same game in quite the same way.

Factors: Everyone up on the week. SDY Divi Yield SPLV Low Beta at the bottom of the pile. If you look up the chart some ETFs with a close 1W performance are close to those with very different 1M/3M performance. IWF Growth MTUM Momentum is both up +3% on the week but MTUM -0.1% against +8.62% over 3M. How strange. Important? Who knows.

Sectors: XLE Energy XLU Utilities are strange bedfellows both down on the week. XLC Communications tops the chart but a huge part of that came on Friday with FB Facebook SNAP Snapchat having big moves on earnings. XLRE Real Estate looks jolly interesting here strong 1M/3M/YTD momentum and it straddles two worlds one the positive push in rents and two should the Fed have to step in fallings rates.

Fixed Income: The bond market purports to be the market of truth where all the clever ones play but to me, it looks like the one with the least direction. Now I must admit divergence of direction does not mean that as a whole... (More)

Christopher Moir
Maker of random charts that seem important 2 years later

ETF Lay of the Land - Thurs 22nd July 2021

Let me draw you back to a super important time in market history. You could not move for teets and news reports and newsletters and podcasts.

Phase 1 of the US-China trade deal.

What was meant to happen in October on a farm in Iowa finally happened over the weekend of 24th Nov 2019. Monday 25th (my birthday for future reference) markets opened all joyous rainbows and puppy dogs as far as the eye could see.

Maybe there was a problem with turkey day?

I know in hindsight it is very easy to pick these little times of panic and point and laugh. These news events are just that tiny tiles in a huge mosiac.

OPEC+ increasing production has been the news of the week coupled with Delta and our inner view Options expiry. Two days does not make a complete reversal but will this just be another tiny tile?

That said the immediate term it feels like some have breathed a sigh of relief I can see a higher low coming. A pullback not to the recent lows of Mon-Tues but just to form a higher low to build the next move.

Factors: SPHB High Beta +3.1% and more than 6% in 2days which feeds what I said above. SPLV Low Beta was the only factor down on the day -0.42%. MTUM Momentum again following XLF Financials.

Sectors: XLE Energy topping the day in equities +3.49%. What we have to watch is this second strong day in price came... (More)

Christopher Moir
Maker of random charts that seem important 2 years later

ETF Land - Tues 20th July 2021

I am reading a book by Luke Burgis called Wanting. It is his take on Mimetics. This is the process by which wants and desires are not singularly. Human desire is mimetic - we imitate what other people want.

It is the reason hipsters all end up looking the same even though they desire to not look like everyone else. They do not want to wear/use/have that which is popular. Other people see "hey that guy looks cool not giving a F*** cutting his own path" that they want what they have. Pretty soon there are lots of hipsters but no one wants to admit to being a hipster.

Mimetics to Peter Thiel is much like Raoul Pals exponential age driven by network effects. One is biological the other is technical. Will the outcome be the same when one is not driven by our subconscious?

There is a section early in the book that references George Soros breaking the Bank of England trade. It is where Soros coined the term reflexivity in his book The Alchemy of Finance.

"In situations that have thinking participants, there is a two-way interaction between the participants thinking and the situation in which they operate"

There is a Mimetic answer to why this trade worked. Soros's large bet signalled to other investors that the "smart money" had it figured out. This gave them the safety net to make the trade also. This additional selling pressure on the Sterling (£) eventually was too great for the... (More)