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APAC Friday 5th March 2021.

Capitulation? Markets not impressed with the nothing burger FED last night. We held up ok in the overnight session (early morning) while the Dow/SP was sold of strongly. But then in our new day, we made up for it.

Slow off the start, (interesting start price too btw for those watching the 24hour price move). But then it was slip-sliding around in thin conditions. Some seriously quick, big moves. Algo's only. Nikkei and US futures were keeping their tricks up their sleeve until the Nikkei cash open, which started a new round of selling. We were already ahead of the curve, but put in another leg down just for good measure.

Found an algo range (with the cash perfect too), and then started buying. Was interesting watching the price at or near the lows. Seemed like it was an algo-battle. Dancing cobras.

Or cats fighting. Low held however, which was expected.

Slowly ranged higher, but a weird afternoon. The mood calmed down, and the Nikkei and US futures pulled back and steadied (lower by 0.25% and 0.9% respectively - say a rough average/median price). We had erratic surges that gold sold into. The passive selling increased out of nowhere into the day close, but then didn't follow through. Thanks my ever trusty indicator...! I expected selling in the PM and fade into the day close, which looked like this? Hard to say I expected that.

Active buying shifted gears at 4pm, when the cash market closed (on the chart directly... (More)

APAC Thursday 4th March 2021.

Hmm - another massive day. From nowhere though in hindsight/foresight, it is positioning for the FED chair talk tonight. My guess anyway as our banks went gangbusters in the PM.

Started off tame, with a bit of the usual. We didn't fall as per the US lead, we were holding our ground. But come 10:40am (random time) we front ran the Sushi Train! Check out the chart.

THEN 11am when the Nikkei fell strongly and the Dow somewhat, we reversed totally. I mean. No words.

From then it seemed like the correlations were being re-priced again, with us and the US futures being held relatively stable (about down 0.2%) yet the Nikkei was held lower at down 1.2% or 1.3%.

Then we faded over lunch - I wasn't confident with the up move as the flows were still saying weakness. We did a sneaky fall, slowly then gradually, then quickly (with the US and Nikkei unch at their lower values).

But the reversal was brutal. And it continued into the cash close and beyond.

Big day, dangerous day. Have a look.



No clues to today. Sneak attacks all round. Volumes above average on both the futures and the cash.

The $AUD and the AUDJPY stayed green most of the day, just, but in the last hour has rallied and is up about 0.4%. Bitcoin a bit volatile too, up and then flat, then down more strongly about 3% mid afternoon. Silver and gold up 0.5% (maybe also anticipating... (More)

APAC Wednesday March 3 2021.

Today we did a bit of house cleaning. Re-aligning the indicies after pushing the limits the past few days. We had sold down a lot yesterday, and pared back some of that today with respect to the US and Nikkei.

On the open we had a positive feel for the day, despite the US selling off into its close. We were keen to move higher, and the US futures and the Nikkei futures were in agreement. The US the stronger of the two, indicating the late selling was a bit of a ploy.

Hit a high and steadied there waiting for the Nikkei open. Algo's were content there for the open of Japan, which sold off. We sold down a touch, but without the US on board, it was "clear" that it wasn't going to be one way down.

Ended up setting a bit of a pattern most of the day. Ranging at the highs, slight passive selling, yet today (not often) the active buying was enough to be the price mover.

The Nikkei was ranging between say 0.35% and 0 (or a touch negative) the US holding things steady at 0.3% + all session, and we had a largish range that was pushing into the highs at the end of day, our overall gains about double the other markets and bringing us back into line so to speak after yesterday.

Charts are pretty straightforward.

Active buying keen to keep the bid.

Passive a bit over it but went along... (More)

APAC Tuesday 2nd March 2021.

The RBA didn't save the day today. A complete undoing of last night and some of yesterday's gains, which was uniform across the board.

We started off tentative, pacing back and forth until the 11am Nikkei cash open. The Nikkei and US futures were up a touch, but we weren't keen on extending or gains, which was half a sign. Higher prob was for some selling.

Sold off slowly, and then just let it all go. Waves of selling at lunch time then after lunch. A small pause for the RBA, which was all as expected, so continued to dump and offload, passive and active selling.

Lunch saw a wave of selling, the dominant being passive which meant that a combo of it with active selling gave the PM no chance...

To be expected when seeing the selling flows. Just is - no need to explain. Sometimes it is that simple (yet trading it isn't).

Volumes above average on the futures, average on the cash.

The US futures were lower by 0.5% and stayed there most of our session, along with the Nikkei down 1.7%. Hong Kong sold off (more like us) down almost 2% at our close.

Gold lower by about $10 (and faded yesterday's gains overnight). Silver down 1.6%. BTC weaker then stronger but not by a lot, up 0.6% as we close. It was up 1.7% early in the day, but faded that.

Currencies seems to be a bit of USD strength. We were lower by a... (More)