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APAC Tuesday 11th May 2021.

Markets didn't hold the line last night - interestingly the SPI was telling me that. I didn't trade it, but wasn't surprised to see the US fade the highs. Yet over 200pts for the Dow was more than I expected.

So that set the scene for our open. The SPI fell more after the Dow closed, so into the open we had done a bit of work already. A quiet start, where the cash wasn't in a hurry to sell. The SPI rallied to meet the cash, then slowly faded once the cash was open. That was likely due to the Nikkei and US futures, the Nikkei in particular which was jumping around, but then when negative in a hurry, down 0.7% in minutes. The US futures were originally higher (Dow up 70 say) so it was slower to correlate, but the Nikkei continued lower, and the US quickly followed.

We too moved lower, and more quickly as the US futures were hit into 11am. The US SP500 was weaker than the Dow, both lower (0.3% Dow 0.5% SP) and the Nikkei down 1.3%. Not much else going on, and the SPI rallied as if we were not part of the weakness. However that move was faded before China inflation data (CPI exp, PPI much higher v exp). The data didn't seem to move much. BTC was up 1% from the open, down to 0 at this data release, then jumped about 0.6% after.

SPI kept up the selling, the... (More)

Long NYMEX RBOB Gasoline Futures (Short Term Event)

TL;DR, long gasoline as an event play on the Colonial pipeline closure, which supplies 45% of the east coast's gasoline. This AM (Asian time), Biden signed an emergency order authorizing transportation via road across many east coast states in response to the pipeline ransomware attack.

We do not currently have many details on the extent of the attack, but the emergency order does not yet seem to be priced to me. Note that futures (IBKR symbol RB) did spike significantly at open, but have traded down at the time of this writing. Look to work limit orders a bit below market price and be careful as pre-market is volatile. I have moderate but not high conviction so I'll watch this closely and keep stops in.

My time horizon is fairly short as this is an event play. If it moves in my favor, I'll trail stops and let it move. I don't have a particular profit target, but expect this trade to go off the book if the pipeline reopens soon and have my loss target set to where I like the asymmetry.

Additional plays I considered are transportation companies that can transport the gas and ETFs such as UGA or even PDBC (diversified commodities; if you own this already, you are already long gas), but it would take me too long to figure out the transport company plays (feel free to post ideas below) and this seemed like the most direct expression of what I think the upside could... (More)

APAC 10th May 2021.

The week has started with a BANG! - with a strong steady move up in the first hour of the day.

There was some support from the Nikkei and US futures - it seemed the Nikkei led the pack, yet we found our own strength which continued into lunch.

A lot of the strength could be attributed to spot iron on moving higher! still. The big miners BHP and RIO were strong (about 3% gains) - this and the banks being popular at the moment meant we were not stopping. Passive buying shows this.

After 11am, there was a further high, which set the levels for the range over lunch. Active selling was hammering away at these levels. The Nikkei and US futures came off a touch near 1pm (from about 0.8% to 0.65% for the Nikkei, the US 0.25% to 0.15%). The UK (FTSE)and DAX were also both up a good amount, 0.3%, and have held a lot of those gains. Both point to a stronger 24hours, yet will update that.

Oddly, the $AUD was weaker early, not joining in the so called risk on move - and this dispersion so to speak has increased as the SPI ranges near highs, the $AUD came off a touch more.

Here's the early action...

The charts are the active (showing the low) and the passive underneath showing a later time and the buying continuing (and me calling the top - 1pt early!).

This was just over 1.5hours of a Monday. Not... (More)

APAC 7th May 2021.

Friday already - and I think the local desk clocked out just before 12pm! The Friday Algo was locked and loaded, and did its stuff to perfection.

Early open was keen to move lower, despite the strong lead. Interesting that the US futures were strongly down, stronger than usual and agreed with my expectations. The Nikkei was flatish then relaxed, BTC up strongly (1%).

Yet we sold down the cash open, the Nikkei and Dow futures also coming off. We found a low, at an algo level for the cash, but it was a bit "loose". Yet it held for a bounce, held for a re-test, and then on the third go it was make or break. Active buying (increasing to 71 - check the chart) was increasing so money on it holding.

Yep - slow rally that gathered strength. This is 30mins of trading too btw. The low a very "interesting" price - (yesterday's close+1) which is not accidental. As we started to move higher, the Nikkei came back from lows, and returned positive. US futures slower to react and BTC was 1.5% higher (decent).

Hitting 11am the upward momentum hit second gear, and BTC came off. Active and passive buying agreeing with the price. Yet come 11:45 we hit an algo level that is normally one to pay attention to. Sell for a high of the day - I took a screen shot to catch the top. Here.

Then it was chillax for the rest of the day.... (More)