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Edge of Tomorrow. 28th July 2021.

Just as the market wakes up to China, the bounce trade is obvious.

Markets bid from the start today - the Nikkei especially. US futures right there behind them (or leading them).

Yet we are not playing today.

Too busy watching the Olympics perhaps. Yet we let the cash blow off some steam early, with some players doing the robotic follow the Nikkei/US. A small surge, just missing out on taking the cash to zero (we started with small losses), and then a decent fade - from nothing. I was expecting selling yet this came at a randomish time, and a randomish algo level. Never was correlated to the rest of APAC either.

Anyway, that was it - my sense of the day confirmed and a sell bias to our markets over the morning, despite the Nikkei staying strong (0.9% around 11am), US futures 0.4% (both the Dow, SP the same - algos). The DAX and the FTSE also in line with 0.4% gains. A bit too uniform.

The Yen seemed to fade - as the $AUD was flat, the AUDJPY up about 0.2%. Risk on for Japan perhaps.

BTC has been interesting. I noticed early in the morning that it rallied as the US markets moved off their lows. The news/narratives are all over the place, yet something (PPP) took the markets all off their lows (SP, NQ, Russell). BTC rallied about $500 or more, and then that continued into my open, with it sitting above $39,000 all morning.... (More)

Edge of Tomorrow. 27th July 2021.

New all time highs today. Nuff said.

Well - early new highs, faded as the taps suddenly were turned off, erratic flows off the low, and then some more erratic buying pressure. The active and passive flows not slowing.

APAC not relevant. The Nikkei a bit random, keeping a slight bid. Hong Kong (my China proxy - yet the China A50 is something you could watch - semi legit). was up a bit on open, bucking the trend. But got hit hard and is staying lower. Theories abound. Seems like a heavy hand just bailing on China equities. Either some cash raising, or money exiting the market in anticipation of something ? Moving into ? I wouldn't say BTC, but it could be. Yet the price is not really holding up if that is true.

BTC interesting - as expected, the fade is the trade. The move too intentional to not be relaxed. It was holding the line, but couldn't hold off the selling. Hit a bit harder after 12:30pm (China on the job by then) - hovering around $36,500. I think there is a sense of fear that this was going to happen, and the lower lows are inevitable. My theory would imply that would happen - I guess.

I am watching - yet to be honest, BTC is a minor part in the new crypto world being created, and I am keen to be an early adopter. I enjoyed Piers Kicks today with the CEO of Yield Guild... (More)

Edge of Tomorrow. 26th July 2021.

A slow start to the week is more than made up for by a vicious move by the mighty BTC. It is probably old news by now.

A BTC specific move, with shorts getting squeezed big time, some reports of a $600million move on Binance in 1min. Nice candle. Yet Tether is a question - something feels off?? The 4million Yen resistance seemed to be coincident so ? It is holding the line at $38,000 - you would like to see it re-test levels then rally to confirm the move, and there is a heavy resistance above - name your currency, it is obvious - to question it's strength.

Yet some positive news if Amazon is considering taking it as payment The narratives will be in overdrive now to validate the move. I will comment more below.

Yet Japan came back online today after two days of holidays. My broker made a market it seems over those two days, so my visuals are saying a 1.2% fall. Yet that is likely off a higher level. Hong Kong the interesting one - again ! down strongly (negative news, the government is trying to quash everything? Odd). Early weakness has faded further, down almost 1.9% now (520 points).

We didn't get carried away Friday night/Sat (the Friday afternoon move was indicative of the US move - we pre-empted it while at the same time obeying all the "Friday" intra-day structure I watch). So today we had a signal the opening price, and... (More)

Edge of Tomorrow. 23rd July 2021.

What a dud day. Well at the moment it is honestly a repeat of the overnight. Ha.

So nothing to see here. Nothing I can say really...

The open was standard, a slight fade as if we expected the pause from overnight markets last night. Then a small surge, which continued. Then it was just a slow grind.

Was determined to get to an algo level, even if it took 3 hours...! It did. Hard to trade as there is no flow to the flow. Volumes low. Perhaps Japan is on holidays. I saw the same info as the other day, yet their futures are moving. Not much, so won't comment. The US futures are moving 5points either side of zero basically.

Looked like this as we hit some good algo levels. A few - yet active and passive buying is keeping it high v my expected fade into close (positive range).

Active buying. The topping took about 2hours.

Nothing happening in the currencies - small moves in the Yen as it relaxed a bit from overnight gains. The gold and silver futures down a little. Hong Kong a small positive start has faded right back to be the weaker market in the APAC, down nearly 1%.

BTC got excited at 11:35am and surged a few hundred fiats. It is holding the $32,000 level for 24hours, so that's something. Doesn't mean it is going to the moon .....

Trading binaries on paper to keep me focussed - 20 minute binaries... (More)