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geopolitics
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Weston NakamuraVisionary
Real Vision Exchange Manager, Programming and Community Engagement

Watch NATO today/next few days for potential BTC trigger

Watching Biden‘s first in-person meet as POTUS w/ Turk Prez Erdogan

Why care?

The lira obviously. What about lira?
April 26 (and days leading up to) - Biden admin labels Turkey’s WW1 massacre of Armenians as genocide. Lira tanks -2% to (then) new ATL’s (USDTRY & EURTRY ATH’s, EURTRY breaks above 10). Lira then quickly reversed course.

During USDTRY’s rise and fall, BTC moved in tandem - this was pre-the May crypto bloodbath (and very well could have contributed to its setup).

Geopolitical knock on effects: In addition to the impacting announcement itself, the lira continued to get subsequently pummeled on general momentum selling begetting selling, BTC trading accordingly in tandem.

Then a few weeks ago, USDTRY took another intraday sharp leg higher to new highs, as California‘s state senate in a unanimous bipartisan vote, passed a bill in which CalPERS would divest from Turkish assets, directly due to Biden admin’s genocide call. And BTC again moved accordingly.

A USDTRY +6% move saw a BTCUSD -20% drop, and then vice versa. A similar move +/- 20% BTC today would put it in a new trading regime - full recovery or new winter.

I seriously doubt anybody (certainly within the crypto weeds) would ever have the foresight to connect Biden’s Armenian genocide call with BTC selling (I certainly did not, only in hindsight after CalPERS → TRY selling) - in fact Im betting that they still do not realize this past driver, and further would bet that upon hearing this, they... (More)

Marko Papic: Generating Geopolitical Alpha (w/ Michael Green)

Marko Papic, partner and chief strategist at Clocktower Group, joins Michael Green to discuss how and why geopolitics will have major effects on markets in the coming years with a particular focus on U.S.-China relations. They discuss everything from Taiwan and the issue of semiconductor supply chains to other actors like Russia as well as the merits and faults of Cold War analogies. They also touch on what Papic calls "the most important macro chart of this cycle" and the domestic issue of income inequality and the resulting policy outcomes. Finally, Green and Papic help viewers understand the magnitude of the green energy initiatives and what Papic believes are the best and worst ways to gain exposure to this megatrend. Filmed on March 31, 2021.

https://youtu.be/tX1juZBzJPo
Wissam Ali
High Performance Computing Systems Engineer

Interesting tweet from Luke Gromen

"Gold going to $50,000 or BTC going to $1m is not a threat to the USD...it’s the only way the US can win the so-called 'Great Power Competition.' If gold or BTC don’t go to the moon, the US loses to China, full stop."

 

Here is the link: 

https://twitter.com/LukeGromen/status/1386351689477902336?s=20
John San
SP - ETH - GOLD / trade- expose-hoard

Opinion of several aspects of the current world and debates

This was going to be originally a response to a post below. I started to write and write and I realise it would be more convenient to create a post. I hope it makes sense the content of it, I really hope you enjoy it and I would be grateful for your comments, critics, suggestions etc. The EXCHANGE community is truly the most amazing group of people, so I am intrigued to share with you my conclusions, opinions, ideas here below. I of course have referred to other ideas in RV and here in the exchange but I wanted to keep the big picture, so here it goes (disclaimer: I am not an economist my main degree is in Law):

The last video in the RVDB of 09.04.2021 is interesting in that maybe under the scenes the only thing happening is the devaluation of the dollar (i.e. faster than ever) because power is shifting outside of the US (still slowly in historical absolute terms?). I also have observed several posts in this direction on the exchange. Maybe all the hype of WSB and ideas of a super trend of all or a super bubble (however we want to refer to it). In reality maybe we are in a monetary deflationist environment and everything happening from Bitcoin to stocks (stonks as some like to refer to) etc is just a consequence of the decline of the US dollar as reserve currency. Maybe we are partying that stocks are up without realising... (More)