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Sam ColtExChangemaker
"So called Business Engineer"

1 in 5 chance Gold Isn't that safe haven YouTubers say it is 🤓


Interesting Graph from Man Group, The Bond Problem 

The question the ask is; given super low yields, should you replace the Bonds with gold? 

Well its not a simple yes or no but they provide this interesting graph showing how gold and SNP returns are related. 

and Correlation trend is not your friend, 
 

 

Kind of mirrors what I saved before: 
 


 

The above are screenshots from a report called: "US Economic Outlook & Implications of Current Policies for Inflation, Gold and Bitcoin (15th in our COVID-19 Series) by Goldman. Sadly the dropbox link to the full presentation is dead.
 

For more interesting info see below 👇

📙 Let’s Keep Democratizing Finance, Shall We? Jan 2021 Buyside Research
 

 

Weston NakamuraVisionary
Real Vision Exchange Manager, Programming and Community Engagement

Long 30y USTs (TLT) → Long Gold (GLD)

@Travis Kimmel & @Steven Van Metre trade idea
Holding Period - Two Part Sequence:

1, Long Risk-Free Duration via 30y UST (or TLT, ZROZ) Until market sentiment/positioning pivots to deflation & insolvency expectations → long end yields drop/bond prices ↑ (convexity), SELL...

 

2. BUY Gold on dip w/ UST gains proceeds 

 

 long term UST yields & gold move in tandem until March 2020 divergence - take profit on USTs & switch to gold 
 long term UST yields & gold move in tandem until March 2020 divergence - take profit on USTs & switch to gold 
2008 crisis: Long duration +40% in weeks, gold drops -30% & outperforms thereafter
2008 crisis: Long duration +40% in weeks, gold drops -30% & outperforms thereafter

RV President @Travis Kimmel & @Steven Van Metre ‘s trade from interview on Travis’  deflationary macro outlook. Also discusses what’s next for former President Trump & possible market implications 

Link to video from Jan 26 here

For the sake of comments, let’s not debate inflation vs deflation, or “all good 👍” vs ”insolvency”  - rather, assume deflation + insolvency a given.  

Comment on the trade itself: Is this trade construction & strategy the best way to play deflationary shock? Anyone have a better risk adjusted return?