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gold miners
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12 questions
32 posts

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Anyone has a bear case for gold?

I personally long gold through GDXJ, since late 2018.  Gold has not been performing well since the "correction". I understand the usual reasonales, such as,  QE, potential Deflation, Inflation, pent-up demand and etc.  The cup and handle bullish TA pattern .. 

But I wondered if there's an actual bear case for gold now. The last bull run actually ends before QE3 ended. I wondered if the market has already looked beyond the 2021 QE. 

Basel III

Are there any plans for a video on Basel III rules and how it will impact the gold market? I understand that from Jan 2022 bullion banks will not be able to to trade unallocated gold, and that will have a large positive impact on the gold price. Cheers!

Christopher Moir
Maker of random charts that seem important 2 years later

What do gold miners need in order to mine gold?

Two years ago I found a piece of research hosted by Goldmoney. It was produced by Stefan Wieler and Josh Crumb. There are a total of 4 pieces and I am concentrating on the 3rd.

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/gold-price-framework-vol-2-the-energy-side-of-the-equation

If interested download each of the PDFs as it is only a summary on the website. In the research, Stefan breaks down the reliance on oil of the gold miners. Directly via diesel etc for machinery and power at a remote mine site. Also indirectly rubber for huge machinery tyres lubricants and even the need to shift humans from habitation to mining sites. The scale is important the reliance per company is different as well as different sites within the same company. It is very interesting so go and read it and all the others if interested in this space.

TLDR the report says on average "energy" cost makes up ~50% of gold production costs. Oil and oil derivatives and by-products make up the majority of this cost.

Josh Crumb always highlights the "long-dated energy to gold cost". For this, I use 5 year GC (gold) futures prices against 5 Year BZ (Brent Oil) futures prices.

The scale on the right is how many barrels of Oil will 1 Oz of gold purchase.

Orange is the long-dated price which will remove as many of the short-term volatility of market movements. If we look at the 1 year forward purple line at two points this year 1 Oz of Gold could buy 48 barrels of... (More)

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