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Has Everything Changed?
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Trading Outlook and Catalysts

Hey guys, I just did a really fun video with @Aahan Menon on the current economic outlook and how to trade it. More importantly, we talked about trading the catalyst of the TGA emptying over a trillion dollars out of their account! You need to know this catalyst because it will be one of the major driving factors as we move through Q2. 

The goal of this video is two-fold: Educationally explaining where we are in the economy cyclically and also how liquidity is currently functioning in this market regime. I have gleaned so much value from Aahan's research and conversations with him. Some of the best trades I have put on, stem from reading his research (https://prometheusresearch.substack.com/). I only plug him because the research is exceptional and free! 

Several of the topics we discussed surround @Raoul Pal discussion about liquidity and if we are really in a bubble. 

Enjoy!

https://youtu.be/w9GxOFlqCoU

 

Michael Epstein
Serial Entrepeneur / Investor / Trader

CVA adjustment. Mark to market.

economists and macro hedge fund guys need to know.   
“HAS EVERYTHING CHANGED?”  

answer:   Yes  

one little example below

So, I used to study this jonathan Gregory guy.   And he wrote this whole book on Xva.   
ive been wondering.  Does counterparty credit matter now that the federal reserve and central banks just buy up junk fed through a special purpose vehicle into the feds balance sheet?

 

why worry about the counterparty?   The counterparty credit risk is now risk transferEd to central bankers. 

there is no counterparty credit risk unless it’s the risk of the central bank that risk transfers onto their balance sheets...  


 

https://youtu.be/DnCqFBiSOB8



 

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