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Geopolitical/Fiscal Policy Analysis Video

John Fadool said he would a video with me before he goes off to boot camp. I really appreciated it because I have had a lot of questions about financial history and how the current infrastructure bill is playing out. 

There is a pretty big divide between the financial industry and politics. John bridges that divide. We went through the 100-year charts of interest rates, GDP, fiscal spending, and a lot more. 

One major takeaways= infrastructure bill = very low probability of making it through at this point. This has pretty big trading implications if you are monitoring the market. 

I have attached a word doc with links to all the charts we looked at. 

I realize the video is a little long so here is the breakdown: The first half of the video we break down the financial history of every single decade since 1920. The second half of the video we focus on the current fiscal landscape and the risks that await us. Most people are not talking about the shifts that are taking place with Boomers, Millenials and how they impact the job market/stock market. 

https://youtu.be/5zPYfC0Q0tM

#johngetsthechipsfromchipotle 

 

Ted Boydston
Investor, Manager, Electrical Engineer, EDA Expert

Bitcoin Shakeout

A few points regarding today’s Bitcoin shakeout:

  • Exponential assets like Bitcoin have extreme volatility
  • Today’s extreme volatility will look like a speed bump during the next halving.
  • There doesn’t have to be a narrative for extreme price action, but history rhymes

Today’s pullback is on time compared to the 2016 shakeout, and about 3 months late to the 2012 shakeout (see halving tracker):

In addition, if we scale and align shakeout dips of the other cycles to this cycle based on halving dates and prices, we see this shakeout is in range (2012 light blue & 2016 dark blue)

What does this mean?  Well, it means Bitcoin is doing what it has always done during past cycles: surprise everyone with its superb volatility and growth aligned with it’s 4 year cycle. Time will prove whether this shakeout recovers like prior cycles, but I’m thinking it will. History rhymes.

Oh, and yes, history rhymes is a narrative, so DYOR & NFA

John San
SP - ETH - GOLD / trade- expose-hoard

An interesting documentary on the hyperinflation in Roman empire and numismatics. Not a solution in the Fiat world...

John San
SP - ETH - GOLD / trade- expose-hoard

Youtube Documentaries "Black Death" (second)

Hi, everyone - Hope you are having  nice easter Sunday.

Here a "nice" / informatory documentary about the Black death (pandemic) times. I wanted to share with everyone. Hope you enjoy it. Interesting video for a "lazy" Sunday. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HYNB4sAxemk