The quads seem kind of relative to me. The price action of the dollar, commodities and vol is what I think about. With the dollar having a drop the past couple days, I think that is significant for how the other assets will react. I kind of think of the movement of the different things fractally. So like you can have the dollar trending down and have a quad 3 quarter with little spikes in the dollar and maybe you can call it a quad 4 week or day? I don't really care as much about the titles as much as the movement and velocity of the actual indicators moving. So the whole % of which quad we are in seems a little relative to me. There are confirming and disconfirming indicators. LIke today the dollar was down, most of the commodities were up but oil was down. Oil is a major indicator for what is happening but its saying something different. So what is the answer? In my mind you gotta make a decision under uncertainty when you have contradictory details. Plus, a lot of times if you set up the trade right then it doesn't matter if one of the indicators is saying the opposite.
On top of that.....the volatility of things is so choppy right now that things are not trending well so its hard to stay in a specific "qaud" for a while. We will see what happens. At the end fo the day, can we... (More)