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Is Everything a Bubble?
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Sam ColtExChangemaker
"So called Business Engineer"

For all you 🐻's on here. Have a look at how "The Armagedonnists" can cost you.

A fun "what if" analysis based on listening + acting on the words of media's favourite 🐻's: 

Micheal Cambalest 2019
Micheal Cambalest 2019

 

I find it good stuff to reflect on. Because the doom stories are mostly very convincing and loss aversion is very real, especially the older one gets (less time to make up the gains). 

This analysis is just an exercise and does not reflect reality (except four Nouriel Roubini who really is a Perma Bear) since if you would have invested in the funds of some of these guys you probably would have done better than this graph lets you believe. Also, these guys change their minds & this isn't reflected in the graph. 

 

From part 2: revisited to include the covid crash. 
From part 2: revisited to include the covid crash. 

 

you can read the whole piece here:

Part 1, 2019: https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-wm-aem/global/pb/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/the-armageddonists.pdf

Part 2, includes covid Nov 2020: https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-wm-aem/global/pb/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/the-armageddonists-revisited.pdf

 

As the pinch of salt I would include this reflection from Jeremy Grantham in "Waiting for the last dance": 
 

https://www.gmo.com/europe/research-library/waiting-for-the-last-dance/


 

Ray Dalio is also asking the question “Are We In a Bubble?”

Trading Outlook and Catalysts

Hey guys, I just did a really fun video with @Aahan Menon on the current economic outlook and how to trade it. More importantly, we talked about trading the catalyst of the TGA emptying over a trillion dollars out of their account! You need to know this catalyst because it will be one of the major driving factors as we move through Q2. 

The goal of this video is two-fold: Educationally explaining where we are in the economy cyclically and also how liquidity is currently functioning in this market regime. I have gleaned so much value from Aahan's research and conversations with him. Some of the best trades I have put on, stem from reading his research (https://prometheusresearch.substack.com/). I only plug him because the research is exceptional and free! 

Several of the topics we discussed surround @Raoul Pal discussion about liquidity and if we are really in a bubble. 

Enjoy!

https://youtu.be/w9GxOFlqCoU

 

“IS EVERYTHING A BUBBLE?” WRAP-UP – HIGHLIGHTS AND TAKEAWAYS FOR TODAY’S MARKETS (LIVE)