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Macroeconomics
Macroeconomics
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Not surprised.  If you look at Darius' quad chart , especially over time, there are fairly significant swings.  Vol of their various data series I'm guessing makes for those swings.  Remember their Quads are NOT the business cycle. Looking at their list of what works in each quad, which they say was developed with back testing (I hope I got that right) seems to trigger on the volatility of each group. I don't think they care about causation just correlation.  Hope this helps.

It always sounded like the Quad 3 vs Quad 4 call was 50/50 for Q4. So it could turn Quad 4 again. Quad 3 is 49.3% probable and Quad 4 is 48.2% ... a toss-up. Sounds like the main drivers in the shift are USD ⬇ and inflation ⬆.

BRAZIL MACRO UPDATE

Hi for all you FX junkies out here I have a real treat for you. A new report on the Brazilian Real and why it may not be as big a disaster as you think (and actually could be undervalued). Full disclosure, it's on RV Plus.

The report is from John Floyd of Record Currency Management. If you recall he was on in September to discuss his bearish trade on the Turkish Lira with @Michael Nicoletos, a trade which John absolutely nailed (link: https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-interview/videos/turkish-lira-a-recipe-for-disaster).

Please check it out if you have the chance. Here Is the link:

https://www.realvision.com/issues/brazil-macro-update-october-2020?source_collection=9281de53a77f4bf7b6bfcd74eeaee864

 @Weston Nakamura @John Pordum @Weston Nakamura @nathan karner @SALEH ZAIDI  @Raoul Pal @George Stanoev @Max Wiethe @Michel R 
 

BTC still needs EUR strength follow through

BTC - beware of EUR approaching 1.20 to potentially cap BTC upside if EUR pulls back, as per May ‘20. 

BTC, being obviously far smaller & thereby more jumpy in price action, tends to front run broader dollar moves with many headfakes along the way. For longer term sustained upside trend, need the follow through of a decisive USD sell off. 

BTC may have broken out >$13k, but will likely be in a new higher trading RANGE (vs a continued parabolic rise) until EUR breaks YTD highs as well.