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Weston NakamuraVisionary
Real Vision Exchange Manager, Programming and Community Engagement

Midday Markets Note: VIX, hedges, 🇯🇵Softbank earnings tomorrow

•DXY breaks the 90 handle into 89.98

•VIX spot >22 vs sub-20 yesterday is a hurdle leap. Watch for 20 to switch from resist → annoying go-between flip flop level → support for SPX ↓

•Nasdaq 1m Implied Vol (VXN) >25 = Why NDX has been particularly lame -6% MTD

•Eyes on UVXY, if it breaks clean thru 5.10 (5.17 to be exact), and depending on how far and fast thru those levels- can see a price indiscriminate squeeze ↑as the matchstick that triggers an array of risk shedding. For now, they’re fighting its rise on volume at the open ↓

•YTD: SPX equal weight (RSP) continues to crush SPX by nearly 7%. They hold the same exact stocks.

•”Nothing going on in rates“ really? German 10Y Yields about to break ‘20 highs for new 2yr levels

•Japan’s “GLD” outperforming GLD by +3.5% from March.

This is what happens (or, this what contributes to) JPY being the world‘s 4th worst performing FX pair against USD YTD. The only 3 worse performers against USD in ‘21 is Brazil Real, Turkey Lira & Argentina Peso - and then JPY. Thats not a low bar, the bar is on the floor. This whole “there are no (cheap/non crowded) risk hedges out there“ thing- yea there are 2: gold and JPY, the latter more attractive.

Big Tech & Banks reporting season is definitely not over. Tomorrow after Japan cash close:

•SoftBank FY20 results, company is expected to come in with the most profitable annual... (More)

Weston NakamuraVisionary
Real Vision Exchange Manager, Programming and Community Engagement

Crypto Winter Coming in Charts & History - Unless This Time Is Different (it is - but still noteworthy info)

Crypto Cyclicality / Seasonality Developing... The Looming Crypto Winter Cometh… or not. But these are of note:

  • Analysis of Price Action via Relative Market Cap for BTC, ETH & total crypto ex BTC + ETH
  • DOGE: Difference between “use(ful)” and “significance”
  • May 16th sell catalyst: Sudden re-emergence of Coinexchange.io

Spot price matters, but more so for technicals and price action analysis and trading - whereas looking at market cap (or changes in market cap), absolute and relative, provide flow context, which represents global capital investment interest, which determines the rate of progress in this digital asset ecosystem building or conversion. I drew up some charts which I meant to put out yesterday, but after the fucking “back button” erased my work for the 50th time this month and I didn’t have the time nor patience to re-write it at 3am (theres a lot of stuff that never makes it out there to see the light of day, and a lot of what exists that was draft attempt #2-4, hence why I often don't seem to care about grammar, if anyone was wondering). So this was going to be another crumpled up ball of paper in an overflowing wastebasket- but of course, those are the moments when crypto sells off and your note’s relevancy jumps. So- this is a very lazy version with maybe a quarter of the insights I had put in, let me know if anyone cares and and I’ll be happy to share further. And the charts below... (More)

Putting it up here

Thanks Real Vision and contributors. Always learning from you peeps.

 

Fund has done nicely. So far so good.

Weston NakamuraVisionary
Real Vision Exchange Manager, Programming and Community Engagement

Cross Asset Look (including crypto) on US Payrolls Biggest Miss on Record

“forecasting is really hard 😢....”

US Nonfarm Payrolls for April come in at 266k vs 980k “consensus“ estimates (as high as >2mn by Jefferies). That makes for the biggest downside miss to “consensus“ estimates on record. I say this all the time and most recently on RVDB- these so called “consensus“ estimates are absolutely not that at all. It’s dart throwing from literally 40 or so individuals from banks and brokers. How 40 people represent consensus, I’ve never understood.

I don’t care that they missed. Of course they missed. And indeed forecasting is impossible as it is, let alone coming out of a pandemic. What I take issue with is when theyre “right“ (or “less wrong“), thats because they’re smart. But they‘re off by 10x, an order of magnitude in Jefferies‘ case, it’s “hard.” Nope, unacceptable. If this is hard, and it absolutely is, then you have to admit that the times you were “right” on estimates of macro data- a fair amount of that is / always has been and always will be pure dumb luck. You didn’t nail CPI or PMIs, you put a number out there, how you arrived at it I don’t care / irrelevant, and by coincidence it comes within a range for which you then adjust a flexible margin of error.

Regarding this particular latest Wall St embarrassment of today (or this morning)- I have to imagine Chair Powell with his feet kicked up, hands clasped behind his head with a cigar in his... (More)