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Portfolio Management84 followers41 questions130 posts
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Cross Asset Thoughts:
- SPX vs VIX vs AUDJPY
- Crude volatility vs Gold vs BTC,
- Gold vs Yen,
- Turkey vs Lira vs Gold
- Bitcoin vs Yuan
- the long NKY trade
I suppose it would be quite hypocritical to talk about proactive value contribution / extraction without attempting to do any of my own.
Been a “while“ but the following are some of my current market observations and views:
🇺🇸 SPX: Post election active vol selling crushes VIX and pushes SPX ↑
But with VIX at 20, is that a hard floor / cap to further SPX upside?
VIX could be floored & rangebound flat in the low 20s, but SPX can still catch a bid higher off AUDJPY, which had recently broken through recent highs and approaching its YTD levels. AUD can continue to move SPX ↑ at least until Dec FOMC, when Fed once again does nothing on US YCC, at which point AUD ↓.
AUD break through recent highs, looking at early Sept highs when they announced -7% GDP and first recession in 30 years.
As long as AUD is lifted and VIX / VVIX stays behaved, there’s still a lot of underweight institutions going into bonus season- SPX ↑ near term.
Note the week starting Mon Dec 14th may see some potentially serious ↑↓ swings, starting with Dec 14 when the electoral college meets - this officially shuts the book on Trump voting related lawsuits, but just in case you get a rogue elector (highly unlikely but... (More)
My important takeaways highlighted in red, also Blanchard fiscal video is referenced in file
- Market Strength 📈
- Remembering that I AM THE HEDGE 📉
- Some interesting sentiment Charts via The Bond King Van Metre 📊
- @Sam Colt ’s “Enrichment” method for The Exchange (high value info)