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AG Report (Not looking good)






Christopher Moir
Maker of random charts that seem important 2 years later

ETF Lay of the Land - Mon 26th July 2021

What if in this game of chicken we can't even see the other car lights yet? What if the other driver is waiting in a Five Guys drive-thru because they know the rubber doesn't hit the road until after earnings season is finished or until September quarter-end or......

While we all think we are playing the same game I doubt anyone on this forum is playing the same game in quite the same way.

Factors: Everyone up on the week. SDY Divi Yield SPLV Low Beta at the bottom of the pile. If you look up the chart some ETFs with a close 1W performance are close to those with very different 1M/3M performance. IWF Growth MTUM Momentum is both up +3% on the week but MTUM -0.1% against +8.62% over 3M. How strange. Important? Who knows.

Sectors: XLE Energy XLU Utilities are strange bedfellows both down on the week. XLC Communications tops the chart but a huge part of that came on Friday with FB Facebook SNAP Snapchat having big moves on earnings. XLRE Real Estate looks jolly interesting here strong 1M/3M/YTD momentum and it straddles two worlds one the positive push in rents and two should the Fed have to step in fallings rates.

Fixed Income: The bond market purports to be the market of truth where all the clever ones play but to me, it looks like the one with the least direction. Now I must admit divergence of direction does not mean that as a whole... (More)

Christopher Moir
Maker of random charts that seem important 2 years later

ETF Lay of the Land - Friday 23rd July 2021

Whether you like him or not, Keith McCollough is a smart cookie. This is stolen almost entirely from a recent Macro Show and bits and bobs from myself sprinkled around the edges.


Gold ≠ Gold Miners = Equities


I made a previous post here regards input costs to extract gold for the ground.

Why is gold going up? Many will say growth will slow from a base effects peak. Good point but if that is true what will you be doing from a portfolio perspective? Going into this "lower growth" period you move up the equity curve into quality. Are gold miners quality?

The chart below says no. My daily charts show where the flows are going, so from a balance of risk Gold Miners may not be the best expression of gold prices.

Just like my snide comment a couple of days ago about gold bugs not commenting about Gold up on a USD up day. They sure shout from the rafters about manipulation on Gold down with USD down days.

How perplexing will GLD up GDX down UUP up be over the coming days/weeks (months?). [I don't think months :)]



Top Posts To Get Your Day Started!

Happy Wednesday Exchange!

Here are some posts to get your day started. 

  1. @Christopher Moir updates his ETF Dashboard with a new and catchy name
  2. This post from @Ralph Humphrey didn't get much traction yet, but it is an important talking point. A lot of savvy investors follow the money flow of institutional buyers. Ralph breaks down what LC from Omega has been getting into. 
  3. Here is a take from @Victor Martin-Tiscar which goes against the grain of MMT. Interesting read. 
  4. Woah.... Jack, Elon and Cathy are all going to discuss Bitcoin at the "The B Word" conference. Registration is FREE. Square via CashApp has been such a big part of getting the retail audience involved with crypto. It really is awesome to see. Thanks for sharing, @Ralph Humphrey 
  5. If you want to see what goes through the mind of a speculator, read this post by @Matt Daniell 
  6. @Claudio Delgado shares sector performance in the SPDR's. Thanks! Good context along with the ETF Dashboard. 
  7. Trade Idea on the long side to buy Dollar General. I like the chart. Thanks for sharing. @Stefan Juriansz 

From my side, this is all I am watching today: 

The candlesticks are the 10-year treasury note future and the teal line is the inverted Russell 2000 future. Mentioned that rates might be extended to the downside which should mean risk on so monitoring that situation closely!