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Portfolio Management
Portfolio Management
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Friday 12/4/2020

  • Real Vision: The Documentary
  • Russian Baby
  • Markets Napping
  • Trading Psychology: ”Imposter Syndrome”
Weston NakamuraVisionary
Japan & US Global Macro Markets

🌏 Update: SPX NKY VIX Crude AUD Gold BTC JPY

Cross Asset Thoughts:

  • SPX vs VIX vs AUDJPY
  • Crude volatility vs Gold vs BTC,
  • Gold vs Yen,
  • Turkey vs Lira vs Gold
  • Bitcoin vs Yuan
  • the long NKY trade

I suppose it would be quite hypocritical to talk about proactive value contribution / extraction without attempting to do any of my own.

Been a “while“ but the following are some of my current market observations and views:

🇺🇸 SPX: Post election active vol selling crushes VIX and pushes SPX ↑

But with VIX at 20, is that a hard floor / cap to further SPX upside?

VIX could be floored & rangebound flat in the low 20s, but SPX can still catch a bid higher off AUDJPY, which had recently broken through recent highs and approaching its YTD levels. AUD can continue to move SPX ↑ at least until Dec FOMC, when Fed once again does nothing on US YCC, at which point AUD ↓.

AUD break through recent highs, looking at early Sept highs when they announced -7% GDP and first recession in 30 years.

As long as AUD is lifted and VIX / VVIX stays behaved, there’s still a lot of underweight institutions going into bonus season- SPX ↑ near term.

Note the week starting Mon Dec 14th may see some potentially serious ↑↓ swings, starting with Dec 14 when the electoral college meets - this officially shuts the book on Trump voting related lawsuits, but just in case you get a rogue elector (highly unlikely but... (More)


My important takeaways highlighted in red, also Blanchard fiscal video is referenced in file

Thursday 12/3/2020

  • Market Strength 📈
  • Remembering that I AM THE HEDGE 📉
  • Some interesting sentiment Charts via The Bond King Van Metre 📊
  • @Sam Colt ’s “Enrichment” method for The Exchange (high value info)