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MBA Application’s (Mortgage applications increased 5.7 percent from one week earlier)

WASHINGTON, D.C. (July 28, 2021)Mortgage applications increased 5.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 23, 2021. 

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 5.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

"Refinances for conventional loans increased over 11%. With over 95% of refinance applications for fixed rate mortgages, borrowers are looking to secure a lower rate for the life of their loan."  

The purchase index decreased for the second week in a row to its lowest level since May 2020, and has now declined on an annual basis for the past three months. Potential buyers continue to be put off by extremely high home prices and increased competition.

The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 67.2 percent of total applications from 64.9 percent the previous week.

The survey covers over 75 percent of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications, and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. Base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100.


Fifth District manufacturing activity up in July. (5th Fed. Reserve District includes DC Maryland, NC & SC, VA, and most of W. Virginia). July 27, 2021

According to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index inched up from 26 in June to 27 in July, buoyed by increases in the shipments and employment indexes, while the third component index — new orders — declined but remained in expansionary territory (maybe from over capacity, backlogged orders catching up warehouse jobs are increasing too). 

Manufacturers were optimistic that business conditions would improve further in the coming months.

The indexes for inventories of raw materials and of finished goods declined, as both of these indexes hit record lows, and vendor lead times continued to lengthen.

Data are seasonally adjusted. Results are based on responses from 75-81 firms.
Data are seasonally adjusted. Results are based on responses from 75-81 firms.

1 Each index equals the percentage of responding firms reporting increase minus the percentage reporting decrease. 

2 Expectations refer to the time period six months out from the survey period.

3 Price changes are expressed as percent change, annualized.

Survey results indicated that many firms increased employment and wages in July, but 30 they struggled to find workers with the necessary skills. Survey respondents expected these trends to continue in the next six months.  Employment increased in July, as growth of prices paid continued to outpace that of prices received.

Respondents expected price growth to slow over the next year.

It is a composite index representing a weighted average of the shipments (33 percent), new orders (40 percent) and employment (27 percent) indexes. 

For more information contact Roisin McCord at 804.697.8702 or

Christopher Moir
Maker of random charts that seem important 2 years later

ETF Lay of the Land - Wed 28th July 2021

"We don't rise to the level of our goals, we fall to the level of our systems" ~James Clear

I spent 12years in the military on nuclear submarines. Every day was training day. If the game day had ever come you wouldn't have read about it in the newspapers because there might not have been any newspapers left to read. A very solemn start to the morning with this one. The point is that although we had one aim for every patrol, the dangers were everywhere. So we had to train for them. Fires, hydraulic bursts, loss of control, reactor scram, the list goes on and on. Then there is the mundane managing food for an 8-week patrol when you are pushed into week 14. As an engineer, we have no shore support. We have to plan what spares we take with us make sure all our documentation is up to date etc because there is no internet no phones no email. My job is not to provide 100% capability to the Captain if that 100% has an impact on availability. There was always a compromise. If like our bodies a piece of equipment is mission-critical then we normally have two fitted. If we cannot have two then we protect the one we have, or we run it at less than maximum to increase its availability.

What's the point Chris?

Sometimes knowing that your goal is to make x% this year, but today might not be the day you make... (More)

US job postings on on July 16 were 36.5% above February 1, 2020. (postings mention urgency and hiring incentives).

Table titled “Some sectors have been hit harder than others.” Indeed compared the percent change in US job postings, between February 1, 2020, and July 16, 2021 across various sectors divided into sections “Better than economy average,” “Similar to economy average,” and “Worse than economy average.” Warehouse and manufacturing jobs are highest relative to baseline. 

Postings for work that can’t be done from home recovered first and strongest. The shift to remote work in the pandemiccreated jobs in sectors that supported the stay-at-home economy, like driving and warehouse jobs, that aren’t themselves work-from-home jobs. But job postings in high-remote sectors have recovered, too.

Line graph titled “Job postings in hospitality vs work-from-home metros.” With a vertical axis ranging from -50% to 50%, Indeed tracked the percent change in job postings between February 1, 2020 and July 16, 2021 with lines representing “all metros,” “high WFH metros,” and “high hospitality metros.” In high work-from-home metros, postings in retail, restaurant, and personal-services jobs have suffered.