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Sam ColtExChangemaker
"So called Business Engineer"

1 in 5 chance Gold Isn't that safe haven YouTubers say it is 🤓


Interesting Graph from Man Group, The Bond Problem 

The question the ask is; given super low yields, should you replace the Bonds with gold? 

Well its not a simple yes or no but they provide this interesting graph showing how gold and SNP returns are related. 

and Correlation trend is not your friend, 
 

 

Kind of mirrors what I saved before: 
 


 

The above are screenshots from a report called: "US Economic Outlook & Implications of Current Policies for Inflation, Gold and Bitcoin (15th in our COVID-19 Series) by Goldman. Sadly the dropbox link to the full presentation is dead.
 

For more interesting info see below 👇

📙 Let’s Keep Democratizing Finance, Shall We? Jan 2021 Buyside Research
 

 

Weston NakamuraVisionary
Real Vision Exchange Manager, Programming and Community Engagement

GE +10%

@John Ahearn @Sam Colt remember this from the Exchange beta rollout days? GE = pure FOMC rate play.  I still have March $12 calls thst are now looking worthy of something other than 0


link: ↓ 

https://exchange.realvision.com/post/ge-10-intraday-move-yesterday-off-ceo-larry-culp-saying-ge-to-be-fcf-positi--5f635c688110682ce83b3814

 

Trade Idea

There is a potential short squeeze in VIAC. 

#doyouevenshortsqueezebro

1. Right now around 20% of their float is sold short. 

2. Short volume is accounting for larger spikes in volume and price action. This is likely to continue. In addition, the price is making some new highs. See chart. 

3. We are seeing option buying that is significantly above the average volume which can push the price up. 

 

4. Volatility is increasing with the price which means if we see a big movement up with the volatility increasing, the people buying options have a large role in the movement of the price. 

 

While I just found this and won't be in as early as I'd like on my entry, I think there is some upside. I will be buying some calls. 

Any feedback or thoughts are welcome. This is not financial advice or a recommendation***

 

 

Weston NakamuraVisionary
Real Vision Exchange Manager, Programming and Community Engagement

Long 30y USTs (TLT) → Long Gold (GLD)

@Travis Kimmel & @Steven Van Metre trade idea
Holding Period - Two Part Sequence:

1, Long Risk-Free Duration via 30y UST (or TLT, ZROZ) Until market sentiment/positioning pivots to deflation & insolvency expectations → long end yields drop/bond prices ↑ (convexity), SELL...

 

2. BUY Gold on dip w/ UST gains proceeds 

 

 long term UST yields & gold move in tandem until March 2020 divergence - take profit on USTs & switch to gold 
 long term UST yields & gold move in tandem until March 2020 divergence - take profit on USTs & switch to gold 
2008 crisis: Long duration +40% in weeks, gold drops -30% & outperforms thereafter
2008 crisis: Long duration +40% in weeks, gold drops -30% & outperforms thereafter

RV President @Travis Kimmel & @Steven Van Metre ‘s trade from interview on Travis’  deflationary macro outlook. Also discusses what’s next for former President Trump & possible market implications 

Link to video from Jan 26 here

For the sake of comments, let’s not debate inflation vs deflation, or “all good 👍” vs ”insolvency”  - rather, assume deflation + insolvency a given.  

Comment on the trade itself: Is this trade construction & strategy the best way to play deflationary shock? Anyone have a better risk adjusted return?