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The Biden Doctrine: COVID-19 & Stimulus

What should investors be expecting from the new administration's COVID-19 and Stimulus-response?

On January 6th, President-elect Joe Biden secured the Presidency after Congress almost unanimously voted to certify the electoral college votes. This comes after several regrettable months of post-election chaos led by the Trump legal team, which sought every legal path to change the election outcome. Some may say even those paths that weren’t legal after chaos consumed the Capitol building on Wednesday, but I digress.

President-elect Biden was elected on a mandate to “heal the soul of the nation,” a much-needed breath of relief after the four tumultuous years of the Trump administration, and confront the most calamitous health and economic event in modern American history. In this write-up, I hope to answer four fundamental questions that most people have going into the new administration:

  1. What tools are and aren’t available to stop the spread?
  2. What does a “Biden Doctrine” look like?
  3. What can Biden do to solve the issues facing the vaccine distribution and rollout?
  4. What does a Biden Stimulus look like, and what paths are available to achieve it?

What tools are and aren’t available to stop the spread?

There aren’t many tools beyond those already being deployed for the President and the executive branch, such as the Defense Production Act, the Strategic National Stockpile's utilization, and forming a Governor’s committee to fast track communications between the executive branch and those on the ground. However, there have been many discussions of an incoming nationally enforced mask... (More)

Episode 5: The Discussion with John and Jeremiah - Markets, Stimulus, Georgia, and much more!

This is a tad bit of a departure from our usual content, but today, I decided to share my discussion with Jeremiah as the fifth episode of my podcast. Jeremiah and I regularly record discussions for Real Visions the Exchange concerning everything from what moves markets, US politics, and Geopolitics. Yesterday, we discussed what we think markets will do over the next 3-9 months, commodities, US stimulus, Georiga, Social Security, Age Demographics, Green Energy, and much much more. 

 

Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/geopolitics-this-week-with-john-fadool/id1544685515 

Spotify Podcasts: https://open.spotify.com/show/7uqgA7ORSQSFV0iyQRH6lO

Castos: https://jfgeopolitics.castos.com/ 

Exchange Briefing

And we have the first 2021 Exchange Briefing!!!! Oh let's go!

Conversation with @John Fadool on the following: 

  • Markets
  • Commodities
  • Stimulus
  • Georgia 
  • Social Security 
  • Time Horizons 
  • Hugh Hendry and CBD? 

#doyouevenfadoolbro #macro

https://youtu.be/q4G0xLrN3Kk

Where will the 600$ checks land?

The second stimulus checks whether it's 600$ (70% probability) or 2000$ (30%) is something that shouldn't be ignored by us. Mnuchin tweeted on Dec 29th that the checks could begin arriving in banks account "as early as tonight". Paper checks will begin to be mailed on Dec 30th.

Looking at TSLA & Bitcoin price action today, one can assume that some of the money is going directly to Robin hoods accounts.

In the case of TSLA, where the valuation doesn't have any connection with reality, the short sellers should be aware of the train that is coming towards them. (I actually have bear put spreads, but almost paid the full penalty already for betting against Musk).

As far as the Bitcoin is concerned, you actually can't give it a fair value, so no one will dare shorting it. So it's like a super train with no obstacles. When everyone just can't wait for a pullback so that they can go back in, it never comes. 

If Elon Musk will buy Bitcoin too for TSLA treasury, like M. Saylor did for MSTR,  then no one will dare to short TSLA too :)

If I had to bet, January effect is not something we need to be surprised of in the momentum winners of 2020.

Happy new year