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Wissam Ali
High Performance Computing Systems Engineer

Understanding which equity sector to invest in

I am posting here two charts from Bridgewater that explain how someone can allocate to equity sectors based on what you think the macro outlook is:

The chart above says the following:

  1. If you believe that we will not have rising rates of economic growth with no rising rates of inflation and ample liquidity, you should invest in Hi-Tech especially software. This is Raoul Pal's thesis.
  2. If you believe that we will have a rising rates of economic growth environment with inflation with no ample liquidity you should be investing in value stocks and the resource sector.

The charts above compares the performance of Tech in 2020 versus value and resource sector in 2021. In 2020 we had the first condition (point number 1) and in 2021 we had the second condition (point number 2).

As investors we need to determine which macro environment we will be in for the next few years. Is it point number 1 or point number 2? This gets tricky for two reasons: A) Government fiscal policy and B) The FED will never stop QE. Julian Brigden's thesis is centered on point number 2 due to fiscal policy and he also believes we will get yield curve control which is another way of saying shit loads of liquidity. In this environment you load your truck with commodities, gold and gold miners.

How this impacts Bitcoin I do not know. I am still trying to assess how the market is assessing bitcoin? If it is an... (More)

Weston NakamuraVisionary
Real Vision Exchange Manager, Programming and Community Engagement

Weekly Roundup + Global Markets Review: USD & FX, USTs, Equities, Options & Quarter Expiry, Gold & Metals, BTC & Crypto, Market Relevant Geopolitics, Global Central Banks

Not my typical weekly roundup at all ↑

Markets Reviewed / Examined & Explained

In this note- market related matters from the week:

•Global Central Banks

•Geopolitical Risk

•”The Dollar” / the yen, FX

•UST yields

•Gold & crypto

•June quarterly options expiry/meme calls

I was going to discuss markets on RVDB Thurs but didn’t make it on. Not every day is a markets discussion day- but day after FOMC certainly was. We saw some major moves that had left many puzzled. So here are some points below, covering cross asset market observations, explanations, and what to look for going forward.

I’m writing a separate post for this following up on Japan: The World’s Biggest COVID Failure but given the US COVID risk discussion, will quickly mention the FAR more pressing COVID catastrophe looming with an exact date slapped on it: Tokyo Summer Olympics. Japan currently 5% vaccinated - yes, FIVE PERCENT have at least ONE SHOT, lowest per capita among developed AND developing nations, trailing even Brazil & India), less than one month away from people from every single country coming into Tokyo for two weeks in the worlds largest and one of most densely populated metropolitan areas, and then returning back to their respective countries in every corner of the world. And as far as I can tell, NONE of this is on anyone’s radar, so if you want to talk COVID, this is prob the discussion that matters most right now. Just my view.

And as always,... (More)

PT Home Depot Associate AMA; by the way, weekly sales for my store is 1.4mil MoM for 5 straight. (post any questions below)

Wissam Ali
High Performance Computing Systems Engineer

The Sub-priming of Bitcoin

For all the bitcoin hodlers this is a worthwhile video to watch. Tyler Neville interviews Bryan Reynolds discussing how institutions will invest in bitcoin indirectly via leverage.  He also discusses how pension funds are indirectly funding stock buybacks and he expects another long-run bull market. @Raoul Pal and @Ash Bennington  I think it would be valuable bringing Bryan to the RV platform for an interview to discuss in more detail his sub priming thesis of bitcoin. Enjoy.