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Short-term/Swing traders

In my trades, I take a rule based approach. This helps me to stay disciplined especially when things are going against my positions. It also stops me from getting itchy fingers when things are going well or when nothing is happening in the market and you feel like you need to do SOMETHING.

I have outlined the approach on my blog post (link below). Not sure if people would find regular updates on an index level to be useful? Please let me know.

Trade Idea

So I posted a chart of the huge spread between some clean energy ETFs and the oil/gas ETF about a week ago. The price action from a lot of the stocks in these ETFs has been massive. I think there is a possibility that part of their causal driver is Biden getting elected. I'm not totally convinced of this but I'm watching their price action and a lot of other people see the clean energy and political link. Everyone has been saying different stuff about the indices but I think this clean energy sector is much more sensitive to politics than other sectors. So a possible scenario in my mind is if Biden gets elected then these things could breakout. If Biden loses they could retrace some of their movement but probably not a long term decline. This is not a prediction, just variables to monitor and potentially trade. In addition, I am not convinced of the causal link between Biden getting elected and the price action. It is dangerous to assume causality because it could simply be an illusion and something else is driving them. 

These are just possible scenarios and not biased to any political view. Price action will be the final determinate. Guys, this isn't a trade recommendation!

The Clean Energy ETFs are: TAN, ICLN, QCLN, and PBD. You can also look at the ETFs or the stocks in them. 


Sam Colt
"Guy that provides the proper Experimental Design"

RV content request; so we had the whole WireCard fraud play out this year. I would love a video on the audit business and the fallout.

The WireCard story was really big but I feel RV hasn't really digested it or looked into it. It is kind of a shame. With a lot of the dust settled now I think it's time you guys create some content around it. 

Get Dan McCrum on RV he is a good lad! 


Looking at Election via VIX Spreads

Trading Elections via VIX : Spreads, Options, ETF/ETNs (and not through headlines

VXX $20 puts for expiry tomorrow (fri) traded >10k contracts from the open as traders exit the 20k contracts of open interest betting on VXX > $20 that will disappear after tomorrow.

But options bets for a higher VIX began yesterday in the final hour of US cash trading session, as nearly 50k call options on $50 VIX Nov17 ‘20 traded in 2 massive clips towards the close. As a result, VIX Nov $50 Calls have taken the decisive lead as highest open interest, with >100k contracts open, 2x more vs the next highest open int. As of today so far, nearly 20k volume already traded in these Nov $50C’s. These are currently .16 delta calls (in a way, market is implying a 16% chance of VIX to be at or above 50 by Nov expiration), so no real significant dealer delta neutral hedging activity for now, but something to be conscious of- should VIX start to move ↑, it wont be a slow and steady drift (when is it ever) but a sharp +5, +10 point intraday move on VIX.

VIX options positioning currently stands at a put/call ratio of 0.84 ( < 1 = more calls vs puts positioned).

Following my notes from last 1-2 days on the short-mid VIX curve flattening may result in a sharp SPX sell off as per VIXM vs VXX, some more charts below:

VXX historically only traded below VIXM twice,... (More)