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Will Treasury Yields spiking to 1.6% cause the VIX to finally go >40 for the De-Leveraging event to happen?

Will Treasury Yields spiking to 1.6% cause the VIX to finally go >40 for the De-Leveraging event to happen?

Would love to see everyone's thoughts and plays.

TLT bonds seems to be struggling, everyone else have equity puts like $SPY?

Craig P
Independent Macro/Vol/Crypto/Quant/Fintech Nerd

Covid crash vs the average SPX bear market

The covid crash was a bear market like no other... Markets crashed faster and recovered stronger than any other bear market since the Great Depression. The old saying is bull markets end in a fizzle, not a bang, but are flash crashes the new norm? 

Sorry for the crypto/morning rant in advance! =)

Apologoes for the rant in advance =) Not currently in day trade, or even trading at all, mode.. more waiting to see somethings shake out. I expect (would rather it not lol) BTC to dip some more, again only buying. Doing a lot of small conversion trades with various coins to see the ETH, $ and USDC fees associated with said conversations (ETH to AAVE to USDC to ETH and so on). I know this sounds like an exercise in futility but it sheds a lot of light on possible regulatory issues already "in play" or will be at the flick of a switch. FB diem will devastate... no matter what other coins exist but it has its own place. Twitter is the best public blockchain experiment to witness in real time and it works. Sorry for the early morning barrage of rant =)

John Crockett
Independent Global Macro Investor

Rotation to Value: Don't buy the (Growth & Tech) Dip

Tough week in equites so far and I hope everyone is hanging in there.

One thing that concerns me a bit is that I'm seeing a lot of posts on Twitter or my trading room about people getting ready to buy the tech dip and/or asking 'when is it time to get back into FAANG?'

IMO, this is pretty dangerous as we're clearly in a paradigm shift of sorts from growth to value. That doesn't mean everything in the tech space is going to never go up again, but instead that these stocks are clearly taking a breather (at a min) and although we can of course see countertrend bounces, the overall trend is down now in the short to medium term. Moreover, a lot of the former FAANG darlings have very difficult 2-3Q comps and are not 'reopening' trades so when things stabilize I think we're going to see a continued focus on more value plays like energy (maybe a bit overbought now), financials, small cap value, etc.

Wanted to just see what we're thinking here and what people are seeing out there. I still don't sense enough panic in the markets yet but could be just a few days away if things continue to sell off. Also wondering if the Fed will be able to wait til March 17th to make any announcements and if the market will end up yet again forcing them to do so pre-meeting. If rates continue to spike and we see prolonged (i.e.... (More)