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Sam ColtExChangemaker
"So called Business Engineer"

For all you 🐻's on here. Have a look at how "The Armagedonnists" can cost you.

A fun "what if" analysis based on listening + acting on the words of media's favourite 🐻's: 

Micheal Cambalest 2019
Micheal Cambalest 2019

 

I find it good stuff to reflect on. Because the doom stories are mostly very convincing and loss aversion is very real, especially the older one gets (less time to make up the gains). 

This analysis is just an exercise and does not reflect reality (except four Nouriel Roubini who really is a Perma Bear) since if you would have invested in the funds of some of these guys you probably would have done better than this graph lets you believe. Also, these guys change their minds & this isn't reflected in the graph. 

 

From part 2: revisited to include the covid crash. 
From part 2: revisited to include the covid crash. 

 

you can read the whole piece here:

Part 1, 2019: https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-wm-aem/global/pb/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/the-armageddonists.pdf

Part 2, includes covid Nov 2020: https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-wm-aem/global/pb/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/the-armageddonists-revisited.pdf

 

As the pinch of salt I would include this reflection from Jeremy Grantham in "Waiting for the last dance": 
 

https://www.gmo.com/europe/research-library/waiting-for-the-last-dance/


 

Sam ColtExChangemaker
"So called Business Engineer"

Can Google actually do something new?

What I know:

  • #1 in search 91% market share(MS)
  • #1 mobile OS (72% MS)
  • #1 web browser (63% MS)
  • Youtube has bigger revenues than Netflix

Revenue was 182,527 million in 2020, a 12% growth compared to last year. So, I am not worried they don't have good product-market fit. They dominate the space they are in but I am worried about them becoming super dull.

Yesterday it just hit me in the face as to how different Google is from Amazon. They reported on the same day and while both are admired I got to say it looks like the most innovative company is by far Amazon. And sure enough, if you would consider # of new patents as a proof, Amazon ranks 6 places higher than google (11vs17). In last night’s earnings, we saw Amazon share 6 pages of updates on al the different service launches and updates. 60+ bullet points in total. In comparison, the google Q4 looked super meek, just numbers.

On the same day, I saw that google ended Stadia (anyone into gaming must have noticed how they did their best to hype this). So I got a hunch, like wow, it has been a long time that Google launched a new product that is exciting & actually works. I am starting to think DeepMind is cool but it could very well turn into the IBM Watson 🤷‍♂️.

Google had this moonshot stuff now called "other bets". While revenue has been good, it hasn’t... (More)

Paul Harte
Business Owner - Investor

Is this time different? Finding this price to sales chart reminded me of a great quote from Scott McNealy in the ... we be asking the same question in 2021?

This is the quote from Scott McNealy, co-founder, Chairman & CEO of Sun Microsystems from 1996 to 2006: 

"At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that assumes you pay no taxes on your dividends, which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D for the next 10 years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate. Now, having done that, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64? Do you realize how ridiculous those basic assumptions are? You don’t need any transparency. You don’t need any footnotes. What were you thinking?"