This is always an interesting annual publication, regardless of right/wrong (& usually are as right as one can get in most unpredictably impossible field of geopolitical risk analysis + market analysis), the entire buyside globally looks at this, so we prob should too. Note that last year 2020 report was very unconventionally interesting- was the first time they had US politics/elections as their #1 risk, AND 2 months following the Jan release they did a March coronavirus update (risk list remained the same, just noted increased/decreased risk as COVID = the great expediter). Eurasia CEO was on RV last year pre COVID to discuss, fascinating guy (link at bottom, and no its not Ian Bremmer though he was also on RV months prior, link also at bottom).
The list this year seems in line with the broader consensus focus- Biden, Merkel, COVID, China, Climate, Crude/Mid East, Cyber, Data. For those not paying attention, one seemingly “random” one stuck in there: Turkey.
Eurasia Group Top Risks 2021:
- Long Covid
- Climate: net zero meets G-Zero
- US-China tensions broaden
- Global data reckoning
- Cyber tipping point
- (Out in the) cold Turkey 👈 🇹🇷
- Middle East: low oil takes a toll
- Europe after Merkel
- Latin America disappoints * Red herrings
Turkey was also in there last year at #10, and Turkey ultimately became the direct driving force of gold prices to rip through $2k and higher to historic levels, as I’ve been flagging/posting about since the Exchange... (More)