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The Discourse
  • Weston Nakamura does a deep dive on various topics
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Weston NakamuraVisionary
Real Vision Exchange Manager, Programming and Community Engagement

Updated Market Notes (+4 Videos): BOJ shift. Monex Earnings On BTC price action. UBS.. Nomura.

4 areas of focus hit headlines at once. I decided to just make separate video clips for each topic, so a 3 min into + 4 videos following.

These were supposed to go out yesterday. Turns out that writing everything out would’ve been more timely after all. Oh well- still experimenting here. Let me know any feedback please, thanks as always!

I. Intro

II. BOJ

III. Monex: the BTC driver

IV. UBS

V. Nomura

I. Intro (3min) & NOTE: global markets are WITHOUT Japan flows for the next 7 days of holiday (USTs, NDX, BTC, EM FX could see direct impact absent one of largest players)


II. BOJ April Policy Meeting Review: Was NOT a non-event

III. 8968 MONEX Group Earnings were released Mon after close, this was supposed to go out before Japan market open this morning- apologies. but video still applies of course

Previous Note: Theory: Monex has become more BTC than GBTC, and even more than BTC itself (theory explained)
(see more charts below)

IV. UBS - “surprise!” -$774mn loss on Archegos to join the club. Why their temporary silence is deafening

V. Nomura (uploading)

Additional Charts & material:

BTC vs JAPAN Cash Equity Trading

GBTC premium & discount vs GBTC/Monex Ratio:


BOJ BTC MONEX charts:
Intraday Charts from Mon 4/26, w/ BOJ policy release during lunch break (11:30am -12:30pm) & Monex earnings few mins after market close (15:00)


BTC vs MONEX Price Action - which leads which? (Monex leads)

When Monex is open for trading, BTC... (More)

Weston NakamuraVisionary
Real Vision Exchange Manager, Programming and Community Engagement

Own Your Enemy

In response to @Jaymes Rosenthal ’s latest video post (and meant to do this for a while but forgot/just reminded) 

Everyone: 

  1. What is your enemy that you need to own? 
  2. What part of your portfolio do you hate? (“nothing” = not good, add hate allocation ASAP) 

↓ clip from The Discourse episode 2 on owning your enemy

https://vimeo.com/510942468

See The Discourse episode 2 w/ @Jaymes Rosenthal here

  • Trading 20 > VIX <  80
  • Trading for work vs Investing for life
  • Don’t avoid your enemy, take an ownership stake
  • Thoughts on Hedgeye
  • Work/life balance Get away from work for the sake of work
  • Don’t be overwhelmed by finance, there is never a “finish line,” and moving goalposts = every market participant is a clueless amateur
Weston NakamuraVisionary
Real Vision Exchange Manager, Programming and Community Engagement

📰 INSIDE the HIVE MIND of the REAL VISION EXCHANGE: Feb 2021, Issue #02

Download the newest edition of Inside the Hive Mind, Feb 2021 ! 

https://vimeo.com/508928201

In this issue:

• The Exchange had discussed a long GME trade on a massive short squeeze that would rival VW in ‘08 - back in Oct’20. Exchange also had the foresight for the WSB army - also since Oct’20.

•An overview of Jan, the month that put retail investors front and center 

•The Exchange‘s View on Meme Names

•Brokerage Risk

•The Hive Mind Portfolio Review (spoiler alert - were still crushing it), but now with our first  major risk rebalancing analysis from  @Moritz Heiden 

 •Trade Ideas from Jan

• Top Posts + Top WSB/GME Posts

•Final Thoughts: WSB vs The Exchange 

 

Enjoy!!

Special mentions to @Jeremiah S @Han S Rhee @Jack Farley @Raoul Pal @donald lacey @Seth Dingle @Moritz Seibert @Moritz Heiden @John Shelburne @Sam Colt @Ash Bennington 

 

DOWNLOAD IT HERE

Weston NakamuraVisionary
Real Vision Exchange Manager, Programming and Community Engagement

Anyone interested in +50% over 10 trading days

As per trade idea Long SPWR w/ simplest bull case: overcrowded short at decade highs to be squeezed via clean energy Biden in immediate term inauguration catalyst. rocket science.

if you are wondering how 3 of your peers from The Exchange did a (spectacularly good) hedge fund's full year's worth of work in 10 trading days of Jan, should prob watch The Discourse from this week:

...which, as explained, isn't the best "production quality" and for damn good reason- due to fast moving markets and changing circumstances, we had to quickly adapt- scrap original, re-shoot, re-edit and rush out in time for everyone yesterday.

"wouldn't be surprised to see another +20% immediate upside" - @Jeremiah S

+

"charts set up for a breakout. ✔Pattern. ✔Momentum. Just need a catalyst" - @Han S Rhee
+
"I have a catalyst" -me

If even one of the three of us weren't available yesterday, gains would be capped at only +35%. If it were only me and my trade idea from inception, gains would be capped at +20%. Individually, we're nothing, combined, of course we outperform. Pull up the ticker SPWR right now if you somehow still don't believe me. Proactive value contribution + extraction hive mind in practice.

Post your trade ideas. Comment on others. Throw ideas out there. Fine to discuss theory, but step up market discussions. Frankly don't care about another "inflation vs deflation" view - WHATS the trade?? Let's figure it out. We all need each other - and... (More)