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The Expert View
The Expert View
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Weston NakamuraVisionary
Real Vision Exchange Manager, Programming and Community Engagement

Exchange Exclusive: Weekend Roundup

Risk Taking

"You should study risk-taking, not risk management"

I realize a lot of people think Taleb is a dick but he makes a lot of good points here. We generally think about risk management in terms of a stop loss when we actually need a more comprehensive understanding of what risk and uncertainty are. I would encourage all of you to read his books. 

Several years ago now I was randomly sitting in a coffee shop reading a book on chaos theory and complexity. A random accounting professor noticed, started talking with me, and suggested one of Taleb's books. As I read the book, it completely changed my view of the world and finance. I would not be where I am today and ask the questions that I do without that seemingly random experience. 

Knowledge can be nonlinear in nature and we need to constantly search for the asymmetrical pieces of knowledge that will change the way we analyze the world. That is where truly good trades come from and not from reading the latest motley fool article.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4P47UTF0tZA

Did HSBC and the London Financial District just jump the shark?

By clinging to the legacy systems of the past and possibly capitulating to the Chinese Communist government (as they continue to clamp down on Hong Kong), did HSBC and the London financial district just give Singapore and New York the edge to become the new world financial hubs in the future blockchain based digital ledger financial system?  It looks like that to me.  While China is using banks in Singapore to digitally buy commodities and the US is allowing banks to form nodes to facilitate stable coin transfers, HSBC and the members of the British government are suddenly worried about crypto risk?  Isn’t it a little bit hypocritical of them to not also be worried about interest rate risk, equity risk, inflation risk, currency devaluation risk, etc.  I think they are too tied to their legacy system status that is being disrupted to see the potential in crypto.  What are your thoughts?

Please explain inflation breakevens

I've heard it mentioned a few times as a trade idea on Real Vision. What does a trade in breakevens look like? ie  how do you put such a trade on? what does it mean to be "long breakevens" or to "pay breakevens" and in what scenarios do you make or lose money?

Thanks!