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Weston NakamuraVisionary
Real Vision Exchange Manager, Programming and Community Engagement

Cathie Wood RV Series Discussion: TSLA & China

Really been enjoying this Cathie Wood series so far, but also extremely well timed and highly relevant market in real time (I’ve said in many occasions that the RV team who books / sets the programming schedule are like the best market timing “predictors” of all time lol - and it’s very true).

Market Developments in the last 24-48 hours (as Cathie Wood series started):

•TSLA Q2 Earnings beat: EPS $1.45 vs $0.96 est. OP $1.3bn (3x YoY), overcoming the fundamental bear case hurdles. EV deliveries 201k vs 195k est, beating their own estimates even with China/supply chain issues. Gross margins 28.4%, which was +2pp QoQ, despite -$160mn less in gov regulatory credits QoQ ($354 in Q2 vs $514m Q1).

•China tech getting destroyed one new regulatory hit after another.

Takeaways: Cathie Wood, the noise blocker & risk manager

TSLA is ARKK largest holding at 10% allocation. Although she says in her interview that while they obviously watch every earnings quarter, they’re not QoQ focused- they’re looking YoY. And despite being well off highs, stock is still >2x YoY. The only time she sells TSLA is when it’s gone up too much and she needs to rebalance so that it doesnt become 40% of the fund. She has yet to dump TSLA as a core position, despite all the noise to do so.

That leads to people saying she’s just a bull market fund manager, no different from a Portnoy “stocks only go up.” And honestly, that might have been... (More)

Weston NakamuraVisionary
Real Vision Exchange Manager, Programming and Community Engagement

Delta Hedging Tokyo 2020 Olympics Video: Opening Ceremony Eve w/ Ash Bennington

Following up on my written post last week “Delta” Hedging 2020 Tokyo Olympics   @Ash Bennington joins me on the eve of the 2020 Tokyo Olympics Opening Ceremony tomorrow (Friday, July 23 2021), for one last overview of the serious (and seriously overlooked) situation on the ground, before we (as a global community) dive into the first real test of where we really are with this pandemic since inception.  

Filmed + footage from what should be a vibrant, bustling summer night of excitement in the Tokyo Station area - the heart of the world’s largest metropolitan region by population and GDP. This is the eerie calm before the storm.   

Latest Updated Facts & Figures:

•1,979 - latest Tokyo COVID daily cases (6m high)

91 - latest COVID positive cases among “Games-concerned personnel“

•Tokyo2020 now most expensive in history

Original revenue expectations: 
•¥1.52bn = ¥152k avg expected tourist spending x 1 million tourists 

•¥90bn = 630,000 ticket sales

•Large OLED TV sales +50% YoY (no spectators = TV sales ↑)


Week-of firings:
•Director of Opening Ceremony fired on Opening Ceremony eve- Holocaust jokes

•Opening Ceremony music conductor resigns on accusations of past bullying & abuse of the disabled

+Feb: Tokyo2020 President & former Japan PM Mori fired- sexist remarks.  +March: Creative Director fired- sexist remarks


•"Delta" Hedging 2020 Tokyo Olympics (Original Written)

•Japan: The World’s Biggest COVID Failure

Weston NakamuraVisionary
Real Vision Exchange Manager, Programming and Community Engagement

Daily Briefing (un)Special Guest - The Exchange Thoughts

(see replies for add’l sectioned-off comments)

For anyone who missed yesterday’s RVDB Tony Greer Tuesdays, you missed joining an angry mob who saw my stupid face instead (I was one of them- I too wanted Tony) don’t worry he’ll be back soon. I was pulled in about 13 mins prior to going live at 4:47am so @Ash Bennington & I just talked about what was top of mind, which defaults to recent posts on the Exchange + my big picture themes discussed on Exchange over time. These aren’t solely my thoughts, they’re a stream of (sub)consciousness directly inspired by the Exchange - so thank you all for your constant help & keeping me (semi)sharp out of 1 bloodshot eye. Special thanks to those below for these particular discussions from RVDB. 

I got a rather insane volume of (positive) feedback after this episode from non-Exchange people (i.e. those who heard what you‘ve all known for months)

RBA policy announcement/US market open, AUDJPY vs SPX @Matt Daniell  

Recently explained how the AUDJPY carry trade works, & correlation w/ SPX @Jeremiah S 

Trade Construction: “Long Capitalism / Short …with Chinese Characteristics” 

Interview DMITRY BALYASNY @Raoul Pal 

also mentioned ↓

+see comments below for more↓

HNS - Kenetic Capital - Jehan Chu

Hey RV team, 

Could we please get Jehan Chu on the platform to do an interview regarding the different VC investing he is doing and also on HNS. I think it would really add a lot of value. I am doing research into HNS at the moment and it is really incredible project in the Web 3.0 stack that is held by every major VC in the space. Jehan is one of the main VCs working closely on HNS.

@Raoul Pal @Jack Farley @Sebastian Moonjava @Nick Correa @Petr Pinkhasov @Weston Nakamura 

Thanks !