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The Interview
The Interview
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Weston NakamuraVisionary
Real Vision Exchange Manager, Programming and Community Engagement

Long 30y USTs (TLT) → Long Gold (GLD)

@Travis Kimmel & @Steven Van Metre trade idea
Holding Period - Two Part Sequence:

1, Long Risk-Free Duration via 30y UST (or TLT, ZROZ) Until market sentiment/positioning pivots to deflation & insolvency expectations → long end yields drop/bond prices ↑ (convexity), SELL...

 

2. BUY Gold on dip w/ UST gains proceeds 

 

 long term UST yields & gold move in tandem until March 2020 divergence - take profit on USTs & switch to gold 
 long term UST yields & gold move in tandem until March 2020 divergence - take profit on USTs & switch to gold 
2008 crisis: Long duration +40% in weeks, gold drops -30% & outperforms thereafter
2008 crisis: Long duration +40% in weeks, gold drops -30% & outperforms thereafter

RV President @Travis Kimmel & @Steven Van Metre ‘s trade from interview on Travis’  deflationary macro outlook. Also discusses what’s next for former President Trump & possible market implications 

Link to video from Jan 26 here

For the sake of comments, let’s not debate inflation vs deflation, or “all good 👍” vs ”insolvency”  - rather, assume deflation + insolvency a given.  

Comment on the trade itself: Is this trade construction & strategy the best way to play deflationary shock? Anyone have a better risk adjusted return?

Weston NakamuraVisionary
Real Vision Exchange Manager, Programming and Community Engagement

(Video) Weekend Roundtable: Tri-Continental Thoughts on Weed

Featuring: @Jack Farley  @Sam Colt   @Jeremiah S  

Weekend Roundtable discussion on the cannabis space, continuing the conversation from Tony Greer's interview with TerrAscend Chairman Jason Wild.

https://vimeo.com/504109647

Key Points:

• MSOS ETF inflows to calm sector & single name volatility to attract institutional flows. Fund flows have increased dramatically since US Senate Georgia run-off elections, but remain < $500mn AUM (could/should easily be billions)

• The COVID effect, mental health

• European appetite for North American listed cannabis stocks 

• Other than political tailwinds, fundamentals & institutional flows, what (else) is driving the sector higher? Correlations with BTC, TSLA

• Cannabis as an inflation/commodity play, weed futures

Lighting Round Questions (give your response in comments!):

• If the following three assets crash -90% and you can only choose ONE to buy and hold Long term (10 years), what's your pick? BTC or TSLA or Cannabis stocks

• YES or NO: In the next 4 years by the end of Biden/Harris administration first term, cannabis will be legalized on a federal level in the United States.

RV Interview LINKS:

★Jason Wild and @Tony Greer   (Jan 20, 2021 following GA Senate & Democrats win)

★Todd Harrison and @Tony Greer   (Nov 11, 2020 following US election & Biden win)

★Jonathan Sandelman, CEO of Ayr Strategies and @Haley Draznin  (Oct 8, 2020)

Weston NakamuraVisionary
Real Vision Exchange Manager, Programming and Community Engagement

Exchange Exclusive: Weekend Roundup

Breaking down what Quantitative Easing means and its true economic impact

Hop in the QE Submarine with me and "Slick Nick" @Nick Correa as we break down @Ash Bennington's interview with Jeff Cox...

We cover what quantitative easing (QE) is, why the Fed continues to do it,  and what that means for the economy and you.

https://vimeo.com/500895148