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Trade Ideas
Trade Ideas

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Single stock, index, rates, FX, credit, futures & options. SERIOUS ideas only. Min. 1 week hold period - NO intraday/short term. 

REQUIRED to post a TRADE IDEA:

  • DIRECTION & SECURITY: “LONG, SHORT, PAIR, RATIO” + Security & Ticker
  • HOLDING DURATION: (“1 week,” “before Jan 14 earnings” “multi-year long term”)
  • EXPECTED RETURN: %, or target level (longs can be “unlimited”)
  • MAX RISK: % or stop loss level (shorts can be “unlimited”)
  • Brief thesis
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Sam ColtExChangemaker
"So called Business Engineer"

Dry bulk shipping idea hasn't turned out so wel 😅

 

Update from this idea 👇

https://exchange.realvision.com/post/wind-in-the-sails-of-dry-bulk-shippers-60db1c494300dc606bc23c87

CMRE to report tomorrow morning 

If it ain't good, idea was bad and I'll sell both💔🙂

Bought 29-06
Bought 29-06

Global Macro + Crypto Technicals 3

Time to dive deep into some of the charts that are in play in the global macro space.


KWEB (China Internet ETF) is down a serious amount over the last few days. We are now threatening to break a trend line that is going back almost 6 years. Today's volume also happened to be the highest in the ETF's history.

Small caps are trading like it is 2003. This was an analog that I discovered a couple of days ago. I think this might be more of interest for @Raoul Pal given how tight the market has been trading with rates.

To follow up with that chart, here is a chart of 10-year yields overlaid with the Russell 2000 Future. It is not a conincidince. Banks and energy are large components of the Russell 2000 and they have been quite sensitive to the volatility of the yield curve over the last month or tow.

But this is no different to the regional bank play. Bullish on growth and yields? Look for upside in the regional bank ETF (KRE)

Keep in mind with KRE that we just hit an important low from a technical perspective.

Longer term, EURUSD looks very good for upside on a risk-reward basis from here.

Closer view of the Euro.

Still looking for 45k on BTCUSD

Tezos holding trend (XTZ)

If real yields start to drift higher, gold is going to go lower. Long Gold and short stocks is not a long term very good trade, but... (More)

Weston NakamuraVisionary
Real Vision Exchange Manager, Programming and Community Engagement

How to EXIT trade: Short China Tech / Long US Tech (Short CQQQ / Long QQQ)

Its time to lock in gains and begin to close the trade.

The objective of this pair trade was to have a market neutral, net zero cost, reduced directional volatility, easy and straight forward way of betting against Chinese tech equities on further Chinese gov control actions (particularly tech focused), while maintaining US tech equity long exposure. Index ETFs (QQQ: Nasdaq100 / CQQQ: China tech) remove the single stock headline volatility single day double digit short squeeze risk, while providing significant enough movements to matter (as foreign investors in particular will go from stock picking which names will be at risk → indiscriminate broad based sector wide selling).

It seems that has been playing out quite well. Since inception, if you were just short CQQQ, you’re up 15% as of Mon close but took massive risk with unlimited downside exposure. If you just were long QQQ, you’re up about 4%, not bad for 1 month on an index. And if you were long QQQ funded by proceeds from short CQQQ, you would be zero cost out of pocket +23%, outperforming just being short CQQQ by 8% and just long QQQ by 19%.

You were also able to avoid drawdowns, which takes the psychologically driven emotional trading out of it and allowing you to keep the position on. For example, if you were just long QQQ opened on July 1, and enjoying a +3% gain by mid July - then on Mon July 19 when markets globally were deeply red and... (More)

Busy week (FOMC meet, debt ceiling and the expiration of the eviction moratorium & jobless claims; watch out for volatility lol

Unprecedented Spike’ in U.S. Evictions Looming as Ban Expires

A federal ban on evictions is set to expire at the end of July, and this time it’s unlikely to be extended, putting millions of renters at risk.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-26/-unprecedented-spike-in-u-s-evictions-looming-as-ban-expires