Excellent discussion at the Lykeion about the current chart pattern of the US Dollar. Place your bets accordingly.
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Pretty interesting article from WSJ, on rich Americans getting quick credit with super low yields by pledging their shares as collateral.(how long before Robinhood has this service?)
Rich Americans Borrow to Live Off Their Paper Wealth https://www.wsj.com/articles/buy-borrow-die-how-rich-americans-live-off-their-paper-wealth-11625909583
It's a pretty neat way to avoid taxes too (by not selling).
Why do I sense that there could be a Kyle Bass Hong Kong/China interview coming soon?
China has been slowing since March of this year, just this morning Industrial profits came in at +36.4% in May. An amazing number on its own but fell from +57.1% Y/Y in April. Ouch! Anyone with a logistics background or stacked shelves to pay your rent through college will understand First In First Out (FIFO). We can steal that and use it in markets, if China went into the shutdown first and came out first then their "Base effects" will cycle first. China went through their worst came out and had their easy comps earlier than everyone else.
Now many will say "China lies about their numbers anyway" OK I can side with that but we can still measure the made-up numbers. Even their lies are saying they are/have slowed down.
Recently Grant Williams had a podcast interview with Russell Clark on inflation amazing if you can access it (paywall). A key takeaway was governments control inflation where they can so that the inflation they cannot control doesn't hurt so much. Now Russel was making his specific point about food price inflation which China had at the time after their protein complex broke down with the pig population having to be culled. It reminded me of 2017 when China curbed BTC then and Kyle Bass highlighted capital flight as the reason. Could it have been inflation? Today we have BTC crackdowns again and the... (More)
Please note that the model indicates the direction of the dollar, not the magnitude of the move.
Green lines indicate peaks in the model, red lines indicate the bottoms. As you can see, the direction between the model and the us dollar (between the peaks and bottoms as indicated by the vertical lines) itself is usually the same. This has changed in the most recent period.