- Wild markets
- Reinforcing good habits
- Clear head
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1, Long Risk-Free Duration via 30y UST (or TLT, ZROZ) Until market sentiment/positioning pivots to deflation & insolvency expectations → long end yields drop/bond prices ↑ (convexity), SELL...
2. BUY Gold on dip w/ UST gains proceeds
For the sake of comments, let’s not debate inflation vs deflation, or “all good 👍” vs ”insolvency” - rather, assume deflation + insolvency a given.
Comment on the trade itself: Is this trade construction & strategy the best way to play deflationary shock? Anyone have a better risk adjusted return?
- Correlations always change.
- Watch rates - EU has not followed US.
- I need to make shorter videos.
https://exchange.realvision.com/post/gold-misnomers-5fcfc147ddd8803ec68044a8 <- real interest rates equation and description of Rate of Change impact on left and right side.