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129 posts
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Trade Idea
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@Travis Kimmel & @Steven Van Metre trade idea
Holding Period - Two Part Sequence:
1, Long Risk-Free Duration via 30y UST (or TLT, ZROZ) Until market sentiment/positioning pivots to deflation & insolvency expectations ā long end yields drop/bond prices ā (convexity), SELL...
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2. BUY Gold on dip w/ UST gains proceedsĀ
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RV President @Travis Kimmel & @Steven Van Metre ās trade from interview on Travisā Ā deflationary macro outlook. Also discusses whatās next for former President Trump & possible market implicationsĀ
Link to video from Jan 26 here
For the sake of comments, letās not debate inflation vs deflation, or āall good šā vs āinsolvencyā Ā - rather, assume deflation + insolvency a given. Ā
Comment on the trade itself: Is this trade construction & strategy the best way to play deflationary shock? Anyone have a better risk adjusted return?
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Fixed Income, Currencies, Commodities Precious MetalsGoldBondsMacroeconomicsOilCommoditiesUSDVideos
TLDR:
- Correlations always change.
- Watch rates - EU has not followed US.
- I need to make shorter videos.
https://exchange.realvision.com/post/gold-misnomers-5fcfc147ddd8803ec68044a8 <- real interest rates equation and description of Rate of Change impact on left and right side.
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- No substance in this video lol
- La Jolla Cove
- Money chasing money
- Short attn. spans remain in the forefrontĀ
