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7 questions
107 posts

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Matt B
Founder & CEO of AI firm in field of forecasting

BTC -7%, breaks support on a Sunday - happy weekends?

Breaks major horizontal support & accelerating down-trend lines - while America is sleeping (Saturday into Sunday) and Europe is having Sunday lunch.

How can something this volatile over a weekend ever become "institutional"?

(The size of the move is normal for BTC - my question is about how crypto can become institutional if it does this over a weekend; who wants to be called into the office at 3am on a Sunday?)

Craig P
Independent Macro/Vol/Crypto/Quant/Fintech Nerd

SPX will be stuck in negative gamma territory for the weekend

Master Of Money
High Performance Computing Systems Engineer

It really doesn't matter. The optimal way is way is to buy all at once. So if buy all the assets in the portfolio in one shot most likely you buy few asset classes cheap (the ones that are not doing well) and few asset classes expensive. The whole idea behind the portfolio is non correlation over time. This is the most important feature of the portfolio. All you have to do is re-balance once or twice year. So you sell the profits from the assets that went up into the assets that went done. The entry point does not matter. Over time because of non correlation you compound your returns very nicely. If you do not have the capital to invest all at once, then you dollar cost average on a monthly basis equally across the 5 bucket asset classes mentioned on the paper.

The idea behind the Hawk & Serpent (Dragon Portfolio) is retaining control of your optionality through time. It's born of contemplation, not speculation. The whole point is to remove speculative bets from resulting in a catastrophic loss scenario over a long enough time horizon that proves skill over dumb luck, though "luck" will always be part of it. And so you put it on, and adapt and refine it as you go. 

But can you live with it outliving you? That's the hard part. You can't "speculate" in the incorporeal. Again how do you retain control of your options beyond this lifetime? That, I believe, always involves a duel with a dragon (devil) at some point, which is implied in the allegory. 

You have to drink its blood. You have to beat it, or loss it all either now or later. So make the world beat your portfolio. Design it impeccably. Will it succeed? That's the challenge posed by the dragon. The world is designed to suppress [your investment]. That's the belief which is embedded in this portfolio strategy. And if you believe that, then you should give it a go. 

Just a thought. Thanks, and good luck.