Whenever you want to buy options on the VIX you must check out the VIX term structure first. It may be in contango or reversed. You should also check the exact month future because you can be right on the direction of the VIX going up but still lose money on the calls as they were very expansive.
Volatility4 followers6 questions76 posts
Do you have questions about Volatility?
Log in to ask questions about Volatility publicly or anonymously.
Sounds reasonable. With Europe and US going into a second wave of lockdowns, it's reasonable to expect more volatility. It feels to me that the market had a "big sigh of relief" rally after the apparent Biden win. I fear that a "dark winter" is approaching.
My slides are all over the place as I try to adjust my models to include some new inputs, so I will post a tradingview chart (I am not a chartist!) and some volume data.
Did anyone take my sell $1900 trade?
Futures roll date is coming on Friday so the volume will be a little janky. We have seen a selloff on Monday and again earlier today. The important thing to notice is the retracements have come on less volume. Would not go so far to say the price is "levitating" but I am close :)
Again I a not a chartist but this looks a little like a bear flag to me. You will know that I am very Gold bullish longterm but I will not sit and eat a 10-20% drawdown when I can act upon the information to hand.
To that end I have reduced my physical position by 50% I am eating the capital gains, and I am shorting using options.
If you have seen any of my recent replies to other posts I have spoken about a positive surprise. For gold, this will manifest as real interest rates moving higher i.e. going less negative. Real rates are currently around -0.80bps in US 10yr terms I think these will head back to zero.
The Exchange has really taken a forward step it looks jolly interesting. I wish everyone involved the best of luck.
Have fun today will be an interesting one.