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Edit: Â I realize how poorly worded this question was. Â My apologies. Â Â
Can there be a market regime where treasury yields are elevated, the USD, either measured in DXY index or SL feds traded weighted dillar index, is elevated and at the same time spx/equities keep climbing. Â Has such a sustained regime happened before?
After a bit of a hiatus, here we @Lisa Gee talk about 10 year yields.
Until now, we had this tendency to front-run RV with the topics we discuss, but RV recently put out an explainer video on Treasury yields, front running us this time haha; Hopefully what we talk about here is complementary to the content on that video.
This topic was suggested to us by @Sam Colt .
Forgive the hiccup in audio at around the 1:50 - 2:20 minute mark, I subtitled what the tl;dr summary of what I said was.
If you have any requests for future topics, or would like to come on as a golden retriever, either to explain something or have something explained, let us know!
Explain Like I'm a Golden Retriever: UST 10-yr Yields
In this episode, you will learn:
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Addendum:
@Weston Nakamura Shared this nice bit of info which I will copy verbatim here, regarding how to buy treasuries directly at a bond auction:
I usually tell everyone to go to TreasuryDirect.gov and take 80 seconds to set up an account direct with the US Treasury dept, and then... (More)
We seem to have a shake-up in the markets ! Beyond the loud noise, things are quite clear . A look at the GME stock !Â
As someone who doesn't have a finance day-job or access to Bloomberg, its difficult to find data/search data and do calculations/analysis that I'm interested in and instead, I have to rely on scouring through FinTwit to get access to info.
Having said that, Jan 11 - 25 seems to be a very interesting time window from a few factors:
OpEX on Jan will cause a lot of the Vanna/Charm support for the SP500 to be taken out, which was helping lift markets consistently due to continual unwinding of hedges that market makers were forced to make during the election. Those final hedges come off next week opening the market vulnerable to a technical correction. Want to understand this mechanic better? Shameless self-plug here: https://exchange.realvision.com/post/vanna-and-charm-exposures-5fce493cdbaa191ccaa724df
Along with that, we see some in the FX market that 5y5y forward rates in the FX market for many high-carry FX, such as EM, AUD and NZD have been moving higher. The effects of this have reverberated in the EM FX market, as seen by recent rvol in currencies such as TRY, MXN and ZAR. This seems to suggest the market is expecting higher inflation rates on other currencies . Oh and guess what? You also noticed that the DXY stopped going down, despite GA flipping to the Dems @John Fadool , which intuitively should mean DXY -> 50, Gold -> 10,000, yet here we are, DXY perking a bit and gold puking @Jaymes Rosenthal . One key thing to note about Dems is that... (More)
