I'm curious why the narrative is that the economy is "red hot."
I don't see it. Am I missing something?
Listening to some people on here and other analyses makes me wonder if they are delusional or there is some collective gaslighting going on.
We had high ISM number, but net are we above or below prepandemic levels? Is there a place to find this info.
Let's go through some charts and numbers. I'd like to find some that suggest "red hot" economy and everything is so great.
I realize some of these data points are a month or two old, before big rollout of vaccines. Yet, keep in mind we're still far off from mass vaccinations and normal, so these numbers are unlikely just roar back.
Meanwhile, I won't get into the rest of the world which is in middle of worst stages of pandemic and struggling with vaccination rollout. Just weeks ago EM was all the rage, now the virus is raging and as I said they don't have access to vaccines and capacity to inoculate quickly.
First one, note explainer for WEI in blue highlight. Otherwise, nothing to suggest "red hot."
Amazon might be doing fine, but this is real America.
Personal consumption about on par or above compared to before pandemic, which raises the question, "What pent up demand?"
Personal consumption services:
Corporate profits up about 5 percent, while stocks are soaring above prepandemic levels. Oh, and taxes are coming so we'll need to cut this graph down to size next year.
Capacity utilization (This one raises questions for me about how interpret PMI numbers)
Restaurants, Open Table Data, U.S. down about 20-25 percent from prepandemic level.
Yet, apparently the market is priced so that people will get almost twice as much diabetes at Chilis.
Vehicle sales about on par with numbers in recent past.
This is ugly and sad:
Long way to go
So, let me know where the red hot economy is if you see it.