D Line

1,078

From the lowest divisor of ETH to 1 ETH, there are about 51 million addresses with that amount.... they own about 1% of Total ETH in circulation. They have been steadily increasing

From 1 - 10,000 ETH, they total about 1.14 million addresses and own about 32% of ETH in circulation, they have been the sellers into this rally

From 10,000 - 1,000,000 ETH, they total about 1200 addresses, and they own about 52.5% of ETH in circulation, they have been the buyers of this rally

And then there are the ultra whales, from 1,000,000 to 10,000,000 ETH, there are 6 addresses in this group, and they own about 14.5% of ETH in circulation. They have been sellers since 900 

https://www.coindesk.com/occ-banks-stablecoin-payments

Looking at the big whales, they are accumulating hard, while the smaller ones sell. Rationally this tells me, big whales are very bullish, perhaps they know something but my heart is concerned about unknown danger. I liquidated but now im contemplating re-entering the fray

What unknown dangers? Mean coin age dropping, % of coins on exchanges starting to rise and a big spike in inflows....potentially demonstrating some increased selling pressure but for now it seems like the buying is outpacing the sell side

1st pic: Distribution of holders, BTC millionaires, redistribution occurring

2nd pic: Shows the average amount of days that all BTC tokens stayed in their current addresses. Rising slope signals a network-wide accumulation trend. Drop-offs indicate increased movement of BTC tokens between addresses.

3rd pic: Shows how many coins/tokens that have not been moved for more than 90 days were transacted during a day. This is useful for spotting when really old Bitcoins move.

We start off with % of coins on Exchanges, decreasing / levelling off once again. 

Another way of looking at it. Inflows to exchanges are decreasing after experiencing a spike. What we like to see, supply constrained

Another variation – Coin supply outside of exchanges has been steadily increasing

Taking a look at DAA (daily active addresses), it has been a steady increase since march, reflecting a growing network

Back to where DAA was in 2017

MVRV 7 day is cooling off a bit, reflecting some short termtraders taking profit, which is good and healthy

Yearly MVRV, shows the averae profit or loss of those holding BTC tokens which moved in the last 365 days, based on the price when each token last moved. Getting to a possible resistance level (when people start to sell) but nothing is certain

% of coins held by each group (lefthand #’s relevant only to first group in list but trend is shown for others). So there is some selling pressure by these large holders

And the different groups accumulating

Mean Coin Age shows the average amount of days that all BTC tokens stayed in their current addresses. Rising slope signals a network-wide accumulation trend. Drop-offs indicate increased movement of BTC tokens between addresses. We are seeing a small drop, due to old wallets from Silk road moving BTC and I think some of the larger players who have been holding for longer claiming some profits

All in all, it looks like although there is some selling pressure here, the accumulation trend is intact, with some of the larger whales selling their coins to some smaller whales and retail investors. I don’t think this is cause for alarm, there may be some nuances I am not picking up in the data. I think we still have a little ways to run before a short term sell off but who knows…. still seems like the buy side pressure is outpacing the profit taking, and with inflows declining, supply seems constrained

% coins on exchanges experienced a constant decline in 2018, we seem to have just started that cycle in the last few months

I think these graphs show quite a shift in mindset towards BTC. Last time as it was rallying, inflows into exchanges increased, this time as it rallies, outflows are increasing

I've been playing around with Santiment, a crypto metrics company. Thought id share what I was looking at. If they interest you here's a referral link. I have no clue what I receive if u sign up via my referral, but its a cool platform, with a bunch of metric and will only get better in the coming year.

I'm only looking at 2 metrics here, grouping BTC holders into categories, by the amount of BTC held in wallets and the # of wallets in the category. followed by some simple assumptions from what im seeing

Holders Distribution

Represents the number of addresses holding the amount of tokens that belong to a given interval

Percent of Holders Distribution

The percent of tokens contained in some interval.

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Analysis: % of coins they hold has increased modestly over the year by about 0.5% where as # of addrsses have increased by about 3 million.  Recently we see the # of addresses range bound while the % of coins these addresses hold declines, so there seems to be some that are selling, some that are hodling and some that are buying. A bit more weighted towards selling in the last two months. This group holds about 5% of coins in circulation, I consider this the retail crowd, 

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Analysis: theres been a steady increase of about 50k addresses in this category.  Over the last six months the fluctuations between % held and # of addresses has been pretty in sync, reflecting what I think is traders trading in and out of positions.  Overall this category holds about 9.5% of coins and buy side pressure is coming from this group since Oct

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Analysis: The percentage of coins held in these addresses has been modestly declining while the # of addresses has been fairly range bound.  I think this represents SMALL profit taking as BTC rises. Looks like a trailling stop, to protect and claim some profits while prices rise if anything. There is more sell side pressure that is coming from this group recently, but overall they hold between 24-25% of BTC's in circulation

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Analysis: This group also looks to have been selling into the BTC rally but recently since September their buyside pressure has been steadily increasing, looking like the rate of change of accumulation vs profit taking is increasing. Higher Lows etc.. Small profit taking throughout peaks and troughs. this group holds 18-20% of BTC in circulation

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Analysis: This isi the largest group of holders, with about 30% of BTC ownership. Has been steadily increasing since march. Recently when BTC hit 24k, the number of addresses in this category has a sharp decline but accumulation continued.  This tell me some people must have sold their holdings while others in the category continued to accumulate

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Analysis: This category has a small number of players, range bound between 100-115 addresses. However they own 11-14% of BTC’s in circulation over the last year.  The sharp drop in addresses coincides with the drop in the % held by this category. So a number of these players have been selling into this rally since October, claiming some profits. it looks like sell side pressure is slightly greater in this group

Overall: Most categories are range bound in the fluctuation of % of coins. the range is quite small 1-2% of fluctuation. I think this represent a hodler mentality more than anything, with some modest profit taking as prices rise. The average Joe, being introduced to BTC, in aggregate, is by far a minority.  I can imagine the wealthy holders continue to accumulate and sell to unsuspecting retailers as prices rise, FOMO continues, it becomes more mainstream and so on.  Looks like we are still early stages to this with the big institutions and wealthy investor set to make a boatload of cash as BTC increases in price. The mix of buy and sell side pressures is reflective of a healthy free market trading asset with an uncertain price tag in the future. the trend is accumulation with small profit taking

As BTC appreciates in value over the years, it will become an asset of strategic importance that needs to be protected, in order to protect the value stored within it. 

 Institutions, banks, governments will not want a China dominated hash rate / mining as that could compromise the system and the capital to which it is tied.

This situation, I think, will lead to mining companies outside of china becoming increasingly popular and important for the integrity of the network.

Invest in them while they are still cheap. I think they will outperform BTC as the value of BTC increases, but I will continue to learn about the space.... I just realized this

If BTC is digital gold, then a similar relationship would be gold to gold miners. Miners usually outperform the spot price of the commodity they mine

Any problems/holes with this train of thought?