TL;DR, long gasoline as an event play on the Colonial pipeline closure, which supplies 45% of the east coast's gasoline. This AM (Asian time), Biden signed an emergency order authorizing transportation via road across many east coast states in response to the pipeline ransomware attack.

We do not currently have many details on the extent of the attack, but the emergency order does not yet seem to be priced to me. Note that futures (IBKR symbol RB) did spike significantly at open, but have traded down at the time of this writing. Look to work limit orders a bit below market price and be careful as pre-market is volatile. I have moderate but not high conviction so I'll watch this closely and keep stops in.

My time horizon is fairly short as this is an event play. If it moves in my favor, I'll trail stops and let it move. I don't have a particular profit target, but expect this trade to go off the book if the pipeline reopens soon and have my loss target set to where I like the asymmetry.

Additional plays I considered are transportation companies that can transport the gas and ETFs such as UGA or even PDBC (diversified commodities; if you own this already, you are already long gas), but it would take me too long to figure out the transport company plays (feel free to post ideas below) and this seemed like the most direct expression of what I think the upside could be. It's also capital efficient and I'm frankly impatient about waiting for US (pre-)market hours when the big traders show up.

This is a futures trade, so do your math and know your loss tolerance! A move of 1 cent is $420 and it gapped 2 cents over the weekend, so this thing can wreck your P&L if you're not careful.