This is a quick update to the idea expressed here:
Right now, I don't know what exactly is the cause for the sudden turn in Bitcoin, and I already am happy with my exposure so I am not doing anything right now.
We have so much noise with Tether currently that I am not sure anyone can be sure of being right. What I do know is that GBTC is slightly removed from potential Tether "buck breaking" since no one who is trading it will be trying to get into or out of Tether to do so. Doesn't mean they won't get washed out if Tether does what the FUD pushers believe will happen, but anyone buying it we can be reasonably sure isn't doing so to escape Tether.
Thus, I am keeping a close eye on the discount levels to see how it is behaving relative to the value of its bitcoin holdings. And the discount right now as of this writing is still showing signs of turning around.
I am tracking the 14 day SMA right now, and even on that last dip prior to this weekend's price action, we didn't see the discount get back to the lowest point that it was in May. So momentum-wise, it looks like GBTC is closing the relative value gap with Bitcoin.
What does that mean? My guess is that some of this price action we are seeing at least is encouraging more people to participate on the long side. But real dangerous risks still exist, so tread carefully.
As stated in other articles, GBTC is easy to get into, but a poor way to play Bitcoin if you have alternatives. But if you are looking for the retail FOMO crowd to be at your back, this IMO is a good thing to keep an eye on. If this isn't trying to recover its premium, it is hard to make a case for retail being on board with this move in my view.
The discount is bouncing around 92-93% right now and the 14-day moving average of the discount is showing signs of bottoming.