I watched this documentary during the weekend. I wanted to share with everyone. https://www.arte.tv/en/videos/078193-000-F/the-new-world-of-xi-jinping/
John San 421 SP - ETH - GOLD / trade- expose-hoard
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Could we please bring Ray Kurzweil for interview to Real Vision?
Last day when I watched @Raoul Pal video on exponential trends I wondered where I listened to that concept before. Well, now I just can find the similarity of what Raoul says with what Ray Kurzweil has been saying over the last 20 years. His books:
- The Age of Intelligent Machines (1990)
- The 10% Solution for a Healthy Life (1993)
- The Age of Spiritual Machines (1999)
- Fantastic Voyage: Live Long Enough to Live Forever (2004 - co-authored by Terry Grossman)
- The Singularity Is Near (2005)
- Transcend: Nine Steps to Living Well Forever (2009)
- How to Create a Mind (2012)
- Danielle: Chronicles of a Superheroine (2019) (not so much related to the topic, but nice book).
I leave here a bunch of his videos for your enjoyment:
I will be brief - check that and if you are not using it - do it. It changed my trading, bye bye to the noise :). Internet example (https://backtest-rookies.com/2018/01/26/backtrader-working-heikin-ashi/). i have tested myself, beautiful for trend trading :) Investopedia article: https://www.investopedia.com/trading/heikin-ashi-better-candlestick/
Dear Exchange users, I need of your insight to plan ahead of the very unlikely but (popular amongst doomsayers) hypothesis of Hyperinflation.
Today this scenario did not let me sleep...
What would be the portfolio of assets protecting us from Hyperinflation and in this scenario I want that you assume that governments issue a decree by which all gold and crypto will need to be delivered to governments. I want also that you assume the scenario that there has been a wave of bankruptcies.
If you can also present intermediate scenarios I would very grateful, but in any of those scenarios there must a component of regulatory control of both precious metals and crypto.
My opinion (let me know if it makes sense)
I have talked to a friend from Argentina and he told me that the first sign of Hyperinflation would be in assets such as stocks and currencies. At that time the price of gold, crypto etc should have increased. Question: Would you sell part ahead of a possible regulatory backlash in such scenario? And If so, what would you buy? Land and properties?
Afterwards, once the governments try to have the system back in control they decide to implement regulations of confiscation in precious metals and bitcoin. What is then the hedge against this scenario? I have heard that stocks could be a hedge. However, what about Silver. Can we buy slyer anonymously at this point in time? And how much? In Germany until 2019 one could buy up to 9,999 of EUR in gold (now 1999 EUR only); in Austria the limit is still 9,999 EUR and in Switzerland is still 15,000 CHF. However, what about silver?
I think the best hedge against hyperinflation is a garden with vegetables and all you need to eat in the end in order to survive in such a catastrophic scenario? Factually true, but jokes aside:
Any ideas? Maybe gold miner stocks could be a solution? Because of the security protection regulations? If so, which gold miner stocks do you think are shield against a hyperinflation environment? If so, why to buy gold at all when you can buy the miners?
I am trying to understand what can be realistically done in such a hyper inflationary event. I do not think that the solution is simply buy gold and keep it "under the mattress".
Many thanks for your insights in advance and I hope this will open an interesting debate.
Hi everyone, I am currently listening to one of the best "audiobooks" in decision making I have ever listened to / read (you can also read the book if you prefer). The book name is "Thinking Bets Making Smarter Decisions" the Author is Annie Duke. The main points of the book are clear: focus on the quality of the decision and the thinking process which lead to that decision rather than the result itself. I am (myself) a fan of the Kantian philosophy and this way of looking at the decision making based on the quality of the decision process, rather than the result itself. I think is a very interesting point that one can apply to trading. Certainly, we need to learn to live with uncertainty (like a poker player)...
Hello Everyone, yesterday Daniel Lacalle posted on his youtube the first interview with Daniell DiMartino Booth. Maybe you will get other more relevant points, in my opinion it is very relevant that she refers to the fact that bankruptcies will come later on (when the recovery starts, similar to the bankruptcies in Europe back in 2011). She believes we are still on the hope phase (I must admit that I tend to agree with this opinion).
I am just sharing the interview here below with everyone at the exchange. Those, who like me enjoy RV Interviews but would like to have more at the weekend sometimes. I think this is a worth watching one. I hope you enjoy it. Take care and stay well & safe.
...people who never talked to me about market are into the market (including my hairdresser). Now, I do not know what to think. Is this the democratisation of finance and we cannot apply signals of the past anymore?
As posted on Reuters on 11.04.2021 at 18:21 (GMT +1)
JERUSALEM (Reuters) -The coronavirus variant discovered in South Africa may evade the protection provided by Pfizer/BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine to some extent, a real-world data study in Israel found, though its prevalence in the country is very low and the research has not been peer reviewed.
The study, released on Saturday, compared almost 400 people who had tested positive for COVID-19, 14 days or more after they received one or two doses of the vaccine, against the same number of unvaccinated patients with the disease.
It matched age and gender, among other characteristics.
The South African variant, B.1.351, was found to make up about 1% of all the COVID-19 cases across all the people studied, according to the study by Tel Aviv University and Israel’s largest healthcare provider, Clalit.
But among patients who had received two doses of the vaccine, the variant’s prevalence rate was eight times higher than those unvaccinated - 5.4% versus 0.7%.
This suggests the vaccine is less effective against the South African variant, compared with the original coronavirus and a variant first identified in Britain that has come to comprise nearly all COVID-19 cases in Israel, the researchers said.
“We found a disproportionately higher rate of the South African variant among people vaccinated with a second dose, compared to the unvaccinated group. This means that the South African variant is able, to some extent, to break through the vaccine’s protection,” said Tel Aviv University’s Adi Stern.
The researchers cautioned, though, that the study only had a small sample size of people infected with the South African variant because of its rarity in Israel.
They also said the research was not intended to deduce overall vaccine effectiveness against any variant, since it only looked at people who had already tested positive for COVID-19, not at overall infection rates.
Pfizer declined to comment on the Israeli study.
Pfizer and BioNTech said on April 1 that their vaccine was around 91% effective at preventing COVID-19, citing updated trial data that included participants inoculated for up to six months.
They have been testing a third dose of their shot as a booster, and have said they could modify the shot to specifically address new variants if needed.
In respect to the South African variant, they said that among a group of 800 study volunteers in South Africa, where B.1.351 is widespread, there were nine cases of COVID-19, all of which occurred among participants who got the placebo. Of those nine cases, six were among individuals infected with the South African variant.
Some previous studies have indicated that the Pfizer/BioNTech shot was less potent against the B.1.351 variant than against other variants of the coronavirus, but still offered a robust defence.
VARIANT IS NOT WIDESPREAD
While the results of the study may cause concern, the low prevalence of the South African strain was encouraging, according to Tel Aviv University’s Stern.
“Even if the South African variant does break through the vaccine’s protection, it has not spread widely through the population,” said Stern, adding that the British variant may be “blocking” the spread of the South African strain.
Almost 53% of Israel’s 9.3 million population has received both Pfizer doses. Israel has largely reopened its economy in recent weeks while the pandemic appears to be receding, with infection rates, severe illness and hospitalizations dropping sharply.
About a third of Israelis are below the age of 16, which means they are still not eligible for the shot.
Maybe @Kazu Williams could provide us with his insights... We would be grateful for that surely
This was going to be originally a response to a post below. I started to write and write and I realise it would be more convenient to create a post. I hope it makes sense the content of it, I really hope you enjoy it and I would be grateful for your comments, critics, suggestions etc. The EXCHANGE community is truly the most amazing group of people, so I am intrigued to share with you my conclusions, opinions, ideas here below. I of course have referred to other ideas in RV and here in the exchange but I wanted to keep the big picture, so here it goes (disclaimer: I am not an economist my main degree is in Law):
The last video in the RVDB of 09.04.2021 is interesting in that maybe under the scenes the only thing happening is the devaluation of the dollar (i.e. faster than ever) because power is shifting outside of the US (still slowly in historical absolute terms?). I also have observed several posts in this direction on the exchange. Maybe all the hype of WSB and ideas of a super trend of all or a super bubble (however we want to refer to it). In reality maybe we are in a monetary deflationist environment and everything happening from Bitcoin to stocks (stonks as some like to refer to) etc is just a consequence of the decline of the US dollar as reserve currency. Maybe we are partying that stocks are up without realising that everyone in absolute terms is losing buying power. This is all happening maybe while the US faster than ever (but still slowly in historical absolute terms?) loses the status of the main economic power.
Now, I have thought the following from a political realistic approach.
There is a fallacy in the above line of reasoning in that it obviated the political realistic understanding of the world.
I observe an underlying synallagmatic process between military/debt/world supremacy. In other words, if the debt is used to renew the military, infrastructure and nurture the military power and the military power establishes the supremacy of the US in the world. The supremacy of the US in the world allows the US to indebt themselves more. This sounds kind of like middle ages but I do not think we are far from the middle ages. Maybe US users of the EXCHANGE can confirm is the military was really renewed as Trump reported.
At the end of the day, the state has the monopoly of "violence" to keep the rule of law. We can try to invest in other assets or the next system believing that the world will change but we are clearly then underestimating the power of the state and the monopoly of violence (not only strength but the ability and power to implement the rule of law and legislate).
In addition to the military power. The Rule of Law and the Universal extension of the US jurisdictional scope is unique in the world. Let me give you an example, if any citizen of the world violates US sanctions this citizen can be pursued and brought before US Courts. This is an important detail which I have not heard in RV and I would have liked that someone develops this point. Let us say that there will be sanctions imposed for some investment related to some sanctioned entity and/or widely country interests. Then, this individual can be pursued everyone in the event of violating this sanctions. If there is an US attorney (or US student of law) in the exchange I appreciate any comments in this respect.
The US has one of the most developed democracies in the world and most perfect separation power between the legislative, judicial and executive power is in the US. The US unification is a process which can be compared to what Europe strives for in reality: a political union. Hopefully Europe will one day reach that, otherwise Europe is condemned to fail without a political union. Now, my biased optimistic European comment, when I observe the increasing amount of trade (freight and goods invoices in EURO) in conducted in EURO I believe that as Europe strengthen the political union the trade in EURO should increase. Then, I am very bullish on the stability EURO v. USD at higher levels than nowadays as the political union strengthens.
Culturally the US has also impregnated the world and so it has the life style of the US impacted the citizens of other countries. English is not my native language, but here I am communicating to the extent possible in this language. It is a language with a relative simple grammar rules; I could not imagine a world communicating in German, French or let alone Chinese... Apart from that, I am unsure whether CCP China culturally has any intention to have such an influence world wide. China has no world ambitions. The World ambitions of the US are at the core of the US Constitution and the founding fathers. As for CCP China, I see a lot instability in any country in which CCP China could have influence. I think the CCP Chinese culture is not so easy to export like it is the US one. I do not know how directly are connected the US dollar strength with the World presence of the US in technical aspects, but maybe someone in the exchange can comment on this point more technically. This is just a perception I have.
What I want to say with this is if the world puzzle does not change 180 degrees at the political venue the hyperinflation and super devaluation of the dollar will not happen. The scary, doom and gloom scenario invoked by so many is just that, a doom and gloom and theoretical one and which actually does not respond to the circumstances which bring such scenario. It is the nature of human to increase their perception on the likelihood of unlikely scenarios. Of course, unlikely scenarios are a great marketing strategy. This is what I like of RV no marketing through doom and gloom scenarios. "Funny enough" the virus has been a doom and gloom scenario and any mutation of the virus could be real doom and gloom, so yes we are actually at the edge of any doom and gloom if any mutation occurs. So it is a geopolitical crisis in Taiwan (in times of Pandemic? - this sounds pretty doom and gloom to me). Hopefully, nothing of that would materialise but I would like to place more likelihood on those scenarios than the perception of people have of them. Mainly, I refer to a nuclear crisis over Taiwan.
Now, getting out of possible doom and gloom events. What is the scenario of Hyperinflation? Let us say that there is a revolution in the US invoking the end of capitalism, because of the world inequalities. People remember the Weimar Hyperinflation but forget about the Hyperinflation in Russian revolution. Lenin said something along the lines that the best way to kill capitalism was the debouch of the currency. Then, you could have hyperinflation. In any other scenario I see deflationist pressures of global trends (demography, technology etc) balancing any major inflationary pressures. Maybe you can comment below your hyperinflation scenarios below in the comments if you wish to.
The revolution in the US. I think this is very unlikely. I certainly, I think the likelihood of a Revolution in the CCP China is higher than in the US, as I believe that humanity will always strive for democracy. I admit critics here, I am aware that CCP China has different principles from democracy and maybe no democratic ambitions. The West place more importance on 1 Generation Human Rights, while the CCP China place more importance on 2nd generation human rights (following the concepts of the Czech-French jurist Karel Vasak, 1929-2015). However, for the same idiosyncratic reason one could argue that we will also not have the US converted into a more CCP China like state, so you can discard the revolution in the US. This is very unlikely. Riots because of inequality maybe we could have. In the end, the MNT will come to the salvation: "give bread to the plebe so that they stay peaceful".
In a more optimistic note, I agree more with the idea that in the future will have a direct democracy and with the technology of today we can make the dream of real democratic representation and control of the balance of powers true finally. I think this could be the biggest opportunity that blockchain could bring. I think this will be one of the major events after the pandemic, geopolitics permitted. I also see the increasing amount of the power of people and democratic ambition in China due to the same reason.
Now, coming back to the point: until when can countries indebt themselves? Well in case of US as long as the world believes in the US they can print money and this is what the FED is doing. They print now, knowing that the US still has world credibility and supremacy. The asset inflation is a consequence thereof and they are more worried about the estimulus not to leave anyone starving in the pandemic than any creation of bubbles or temporary inflationist effects. I do not really see the problem with this scenario. As said, I think we are certainly exaggerating, when we say that this could bring hyperinflation. I agree that the stimulus should be a bit more controlled one and not only for those who really need. However, I believe that in the end the stimulus (to this extent) will finish when the pandemic finishes. Maybe some temporary helicopter money if the automatisation kills to many jobs or the inequality exacerbates: as said, bread for the plebe to keep peaceful.
If we look some years back. In 2018 they already started to decrease the amount of QE and rise the interest rates (we all remember December 2018) and it was not until Sept 2019 and afterwards in the pandemic when they have gone „full gas“ with it, because they need to. I think that without trade war they would have been able to orderly normalise the monetary policy and then with pandemic they had no other chance but to continue with the printing of money. I apologise if this paragraph has any technical unspecific comments. I would amend it with more precision if anyone comments below and of course mention the name of the person adding this point.
All in all, what I want to say is that in my opinion we cannot extrapolate the actions during a pandemic to the world after the pandemic and when the pandemic finishes the US dollar could surprisingly revert its direction. There will still be the indebting and printing and as we know will come to develop a new energy regime far from fossil fuels. However, this should be a major global action so all countries will indebt themselves for that. In this green energy world, this is were I cannot see the Bitcoin narrative survive without a GREEN BITCOIN, the amount of energy bitcoin mining needs makes me a bit doubt about the BITCOIN survival, but maybe one could also argue that the amount of energy used will contain the supply of bitcoins faster and hence sky rocketing the price exponentially? I certainly do not see Bitcoin as replacing the US dollar and for me as for some other interviewees at RV is more of an investment vehicle like any other.
Finally, I would like to finish this text saying many thanks for reading this text and any comments you can provide for everyone at the exchange. I love the EXCHANGE, which gives the opportunity to EXCHANGE freely opinions and visions of the world, economics, politics etc. The people I am meeting here at the exchange are certainly amazing.