Markets didn't hold the line last night - interestingly the SPI was telling me that. I didn't trade it, but wasn't surprised to see the US fade the highs. Yet over 200pts for the Dow was more than I expected.
So that set the scene for our open. The SPI fell more after the Dow closed, so into the open we had done a bit of work already. A quiet start, where the cash wasn't in a hurry to sell. The SPI rallied to meet the cash, then slowly faded once the cash was open. That was likely due to the Nikkei and US futures, the Nikkei in particular which was jumping around, but then when negative in a hurry, down 0.7% in minutes. The US futures were originally higher (Dow up 70 say) so it was slower to correlate, but the Nikkei continued lower, and the US quickly followed.
We too moved lower, and more quickly as the US futures were hit into 11am. The US SP500 was weaker than the Dow, both lower (0.3% Dow 0.5% SP) and the Nikkei down 1.3%. Not much else going on, and the SPI rallied as if we were not part of the weakness. However that move was faded before China inflation data (CPI exp, PPI much higher v exp). The data didn't seem to move much. BTC was up 1% from the open, down to 0 at this data release, then jumped about 0.6% after.
SPI kept up the selling, the early flows not stopping. Both active and passive selling. Lunch time got hit further, algo levels holding briefly but getting nudged off their usual perfection by a few points. The US futures drifted lower, the Nikkei fell more, and then held, DAX and FTSE also down 0.5% inline with everyone else. Currencies not doing much. The AUDJPY was positive early on, likely Yen weakness. The $AUD is being bought now the SPI is much weaker.
Early charts - a good short risk with the selling pressure showing up early with my indicators.
Active selling - taking back yesterday. Whipsaw for the local investors, while the dealers act as if its just fundamentals.
Today or tonight our Federal Budget is being released. Big spending - always political. Don't think the market is reflecting those politics - the news is slowly leaked over a week, culminating with tonight. Just a lot of debt, nothing to see there.
The APAC might have to have a makeover. The Aussie SPI is very useful, but I feel most think it is just a reflection of Australian fundamentals, and not necessarily global flows. I watch it in terms of global flows, so believe it is VERY useful to anticipate the moves over a 24hour period. When it is on - it is better than any other indicator - yet like anything, it can have moments when it is decoupled from global flows. The often happens. Yet that is often an unexpected new announcement, or local US data that is unexpected.
We'll see. Speaking of seeing - charts into the end of day....
Passive had a small bounce which I traded against (Twitter too - binaries) - and a late dump in the final seconds of the cash market. Active the same (see below).
Active - shows the structure better. Just unwinding a lot of yesterday.
We came off the lows as expected, with active and passive buying. Nothing extreme - and I'd be looking to fade it into the close binary o'clock. 7100. Pretty flat all afternoon - and the rest of the world was just biding time too. BTC sold off further, down 0.6% but into the EU open, is positive (Dead or Alive - "Spin Me Round" if you want an 80's flashback). Volumes at or above average on the futs and cash.
Enjoyed Raoul and Ed kicking off the 2 week BONANZA (good word) of Exponential Age discussion. Too much to talk about - the RV comments are more alive that the Exchange unfortunately. While I agree and am keen - there are some serious negatives that will be part of the package. I think one thing too that is "annoying" - we won't have a choice on much of this. Anyway. Buying the Doge is not a way to protest.
Tonight it is up to the bulls to take back some ground. Probs are against that - locally we have put in a decent retrace yet the European/UK time zone is starting on the back foot already. BOE Gov Bailey is on the mike tonight, along with half the FOMC it seems. Is there a problem they need to talk about? Might get choppy.
An update - fwiw my idea of posting trades for binaries is being confounded by clowns - while I am getting told one thing, I believe my version of events is more likely (vested interests v ASIC) - the US Broker/Exchange (Binaries Exchange) I was going to use is not accepting Australian clients due to ASICS's recent ruling. Which is a joke - they accept UK/EU/NZ accounts. ASIC does not control US companies nor me opening accounts in the US. So why are they lying - not the best PR for a broker. I better leave it at that ... Hmm. Boycott them - they are frauds and total shonks.