Just as the market wakes up to China, the bounce trade is obvious.
Markets bid from the start today - the Nikkei especially. US futures right there behind them (or leading them).
Yet we are not playing today.
Too busy watching the Olympics perhaps. Yet we let the cash blow off some steam early, with some players doing the robotic follow the Nikkei/US. A small surge, just missing out on taking the cash to zero (we started with small losses), and then a decent fade - from nothing. I was expecting selling yet this came at a randomish time, and a randomish algo level. Never was correlated to the rest of APAC either.
Anyway, that was it - my sense of the day confirmed and a sell bias to our markets over the morning, despite the Nikkei staying strong (0.9% around 11am), US futures 0.4% (both the Dow, SP the same - algos). The DAX and the FTSE also in line with 0.4% gains. A bit too uniform.
The Yen seemed to fade - as the $AUD was flat, the AUDJPY up about 0.2%. Risk on for Japan perhaps.
BTC has been interesting. I noticed early in the morning that it rallied as the US markets moved off their lows. The news/narratives are all over the place, yet something (PPP) took the markets all off their lows (SP, NQ, Russell). BTC rallied about $500 or more, and then that continued into my open, with it sitting above $39,000 all morning. Faded near $40k, but staying above $39k.
On the open, Hong Kong up almost 1%. There was a headline somewhere about them stimulating their market. I will try and find it.
Same thing with coffee (as China making the headlines) - getting its own show on RV and it briefly tops out.
There are some good comments from views with the latest Real Vision videos. A valid point regarding Cathie Wood - Kiril is not objective. Some pushback is necessary. Tommy Thorton gave some on the RVDB - he is always great value. Like his sign-off to Tony Greer.
Yet - the amount of negative comments - all polite, genuine too - regarding the XRP "hit job" is just not funny. Especially the great comments from Santiago, someone I trust. In general, there is a theme in some of the feedback I see that RV's intellectual standards are slipping. Like I said yesterday, I rely on trustworthy information sources, as like everyone, I don't have time to spend hours just trying to find legit intel that is not biased. These days you can't trust much online, nor search engines that are gamed.
I don't get it.
These days too, people have so many options, and don't have brand loyalty like perhaps in the past. In an industry known for selling their book too, trust is vital.
Active flows. A few more ups and downs than seems, yet the move pre-empting everything. Cool.
Markets fading now - Hong Kong halving gains. We are falling - will find a range (positive), then fade into the PM. There are 5 hours still. Local inflation (CPI) higher than expected and previous, core as expected yet higher than previous (just). The Sydney lockdowns are giving the RBA reason to delay the taper.
Here's the close 4.5 hours later as suggested.
Active steady, and passive stronger, so comfortable to hold and buy these levels. Volumes average. We led the rest of the markets too - think I mentioned that.
Gold and silver found some interest - and BTC - it is strong! This seems like a flow out of other assets.
The Nikkei came off - decent turn around. Hong Kong couldn't hold early gains as noted, and since fell further, down over 1%. A good chance Evergrande, known as the "world's most indebted property developer (US $100billion in interest-bearing debt") - is a concern. Hong Kong listed. Yet into the close, the buying (hmm) propped things up again. Hong Kong rallying 1% in 20mins. Ok.
The post by Weston regarding Cathie Wood was great too.
I think this sums up the themes from today!