M. Taylor Fravel, Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political Science and director of the MIT Security Studies Program, sits down with his long-time friend Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisors to discuss a multitude of factors affecting China's strategic objectives. Although they examine certain aspects like demographics and the trajectory of growth for China's military, the focus of the interview is on geography and how China’s large number of land borders and their perception of being blocked off from the Pacific Ocean by U.S. military presence in South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines makes the "first island chain" a potential flashpoint for conflict. Green and Fravel also discuss Green's hypothesis that Vladimir Putin and the Russians are the deftest participants in the triangular relationship between the U.S., China, and Russia.
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Are stocks in a bubble? How about bonds? Perhaps Bitcoin, too? Milton Berg, founder and CIO of Milton Berg Advisory, welcomes John Hussman, president of Hussman Strategic Advisors, for a conversation on these important questions. Hussman uses his custom equity risk-premium model to explain why, over the next twelve years, he expects the S&P 500 to return an average of negative 4%. Hussman compares the current moment to various historical periods where the S&P 500 underperformed Treasurys. Berg contends that peak-to-trough declines in equities will always result in long periods during which equities underperform Treasurys, and he notes that even buying high-quality stocks at peaks will turn a healthy profit if an investor have a sufficiently long time-horizon. Berg expounds on a bevy of highly favorable market technicals that indicate this rally could continue for some time.
Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro, is joined by Wes Gray, CEO of Alpha Architect, a research-intensive asset management firm with a focus on high-conviction value and momentum factor exposures. They break down the asset management business and his approach to evidence-based investing and systemic decision making. Gray served as an active-duty marine in Iraq and opens up about how his military background influences his investment strategies.
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Marks contends that the current investor optimism is largely a man-made artifact of monetary policy in order to stave off an economic recession. Greenblatt argues that mega-cap tech stocks like Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft are reasonably valued despite their remarkable price appreciation. Marks and Greenblatt agree that the Fed’s promise to keep rates low for many years is a true gamechanger in the valuation of assets, and they discuss whether high inflation could change this. Lastly, Marks and Greenblatt compare different styles of investing and share timeless lessons they have learned over the course of their careers in finance. Marks and Greenblatt discuss ideas from Marks’ latest memo, “Something of Value.” To read this memo, click here: https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/something-of-value.pdf.
Famed investor and entrepreneur Mark Cuban, star of Shark Tank, joins Real Vision founder and CEO Raoul Pal to make sense of the changing market structure and the disruption of the financial establishment. Cuban sees tokenization and blockchain bringing more transparency to the financial industry and remains bullish on Bitcoin as a store of value and reserve asset. He also praises stimulus efforts but sees political partisanship as a major risk to fixing the dichotomy between Main Street and Wall Street.
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In the first segment, Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal speaks to the mayor of Miami, Francis X. Suarez, about his plans to attract talent, jobs, capital, and “anchor tenants” to Miami as well as his embrace of blockchain technology. Mayor Suarez can be found on Twitter at @FrancisSuarez. In the main segment, senior editor Ash Bennington speaks to Ben Hunt, author of Epsilon Theory, about the ways in which the United States can better protect itself from the scourge of COVID-19. Hunt acknowledges that the variants of the virus might impair economic growth yet contends that asset markets might continue to prove resilient. Lastly, Hunt shares with Bennington his view on the run-up in SPACs as well as “meme stocks” such as GameStop ($GME).
Bennington concludes by giving a sneak peek of tomorrow’s event, “Bitcoin in the Real World.” Join Real Vision and BlockFi on February 4 for a free one-day online event. RSVP at realvision.com/blockfi.
Mike Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager at Logica Capital, and Anthony Pompliano, investor at Pomp Investments, join Ash Bennington, Real Vision senior editor, to discuss their opposing views on Bitcoin. They each explain their views on Bitcoin—Pompliano makes the case for Bitcoin being a store of value that should be widely adopted and encouraged by the United States in order to stay competitive globally while Green asserts that Bitcoin is used primarily for nefarious activity and is mainly controlled by entities that are oppositional to the United States. Green believes that Bitcoin is the perfect example of markets indicating that something is incredibly successful, even when in actuality it is failing (or will fail), and that its price appreciation does mean that it is a robust system.
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 4 FOR A FREE ONLINE EVENT WITH REAL VISION & BLOCKFI
Panel discussions. Expert Views. Live Q&As, polls, access to the Slack community, and more. RSVP NOW FOR FREE (CLICK HERE)
It doesn’t matter if you’re new to Bitcoin or have had Satoshi’s whitepaper on your wall since 2008. The expert roster of guests at Bitcoin in the Real World will bring you on a journey of discovery through Bitcoin’s growing use by institutions, how you can start from ground zero, and lots more…
We will see you tomorrow!