Cathie Wood mentioned that she is currently ignoring the bond market (I think), and this seems to echo  a comment I remember Jared Dillian made on RVDB the other day.

I think he was saying that the bond market was mispriced at the moment (inflationist) and I think he implied that the bond market can be massively mispriced at times and this is one of those times.

I can't recall whether Jared thought it was the shorter or longer duration US Treasury Bonds that he thought were mispriced.

I found this very interesting and flies in the face of some of the other people I love to follow such as Steven "Bond King" Van Metre.  He always reiterates that stocks will follow bond yields, and we are in for a US market correction as yields keep falling.  He seems to imply that bonds are never wrong and always lead.

Perhaps this is just a variant of the inflation vs deflation argument that people could be getting bored of, but I would love to hear peoples incites and whether say the 10Yr US Treasury bond could be massively mispriced or whether it's more likely it's the 2 or 5 year bond that is incorrectly priced.

More importantly if so, what's your personal thoughts on where bonds go and the implications?

I am very much in the learning phase when it comes to bonds so please correct/comment where you see fit, cheers!

Does anyone know of any tabulation of key market indicators just before all major stock market crashes? (US focused for the time being)

I'm thinking it could be interesting to compare differences of the indicators between market events and support it with some commentary around social/political/global situations.

I realise there are many indicators, but of course there are key ones that are regularly discussed.

 I'm going to work through doing it myself, but thought I may not have to reinvent the wheel :)

Cheers

I'm not sure if this thought process makes any sense ( and maybe isn't at all original), but aside from the network effects, is the way people think about Tesla a similar concept to the way people think about Bitcoin?

What I'm getting at, is that Tesla is a technology company that is valued for its ESG future, in helping to solve the problem of climate change, and I think a status symbol of technology of the future.  It is not just a car producer.

Bitcoin is more than a store of value, it is the key representative of the crypto currency space and the ideas behind that of decentralization, global economic participation and driving a financial revolution with technology.

I think Tesla and Bitcoin share that ideological component, in addition to the network effect, and in addition to their functional roles.  I know we have heard many on real vision talk about this similarity of network effect, but not as much (maybe?) the similarities of the ideological component.

Is there a way to value that ideological component (psychological?).

Random thoughts, that i'm not sure are useful... 

Myself and a coworker were just discussing what will happen in Australia once we do re-open our international borders.

Australia has enjoyed relatively very little impact from covid due to the very strict lockdown measures that have been employed. My thoughts are that if the vaccine is not effective, Australia could be in a lot of trouble once international borders are open.

There will be a lot of pressure on the government not to have major restrictions if people are vaccinated, but I believe if the virus does start spreading rapidly they would likely resort to the previous approach of lockdown measures.

If this does occur, i believe this could have impacts on labour availability (limited worker travel) in addition to supply restrictions.

Australia and Western Australia is a large global gold producer and many of the operations are fly in fly out operations.  Thus far we have avoided large outbreaks on mine sites, however if there were major outbreaks and shutdowns for any prolonged period this could upset a lot of supply dynamics.

I'm interested in general how the ASX could possibly be impacted. 

Taiwan is an example of a country that has largely done well in managing covid, but is now having some major issues and how that has impacted their economy.

I raise this as a more general point, and are you guys looking at any other areas of the world that could be more heavilly impacted when there is international reopening, and how does this impact your trade ideas?

This guy is a macro whiz who has been on Real Vision a few times before.

Check out this great YouTube video where he is talking about reflation and equities.

(10) TSS S10 E2: Gerard Minack Sees a Future of Reflation & Lagging U.S. Equities - YouTube

@Christopher Moir special mention to you as there is a bit of chat around the bund yield rates as well, perhaps prompting another of your updates ;)

Let's get this guy back on Real Vision soon!

Hope you enjoy...

Hi guys,

I have put together a chart and some tables for discussion.  I have focused on an analysis of crypto market caps and to approach the hive mind for anything we can take from this?  Values are in USD.

These are my arbitrary positions i have selected.  The data is from trading view so will likely vary by data source.  I haven't really yet spent the time analysing this, just thought I would share it and get some feedback and potentially generate some ideas!  Please also give me some feedback on how to better think about this/present any of this information if you see any flaws/improvements.

For the purposes of this exercise I have considered Ethereum not in the alt coin bracket. Alt coins refers to anything that is not Bitcoin or Ethereum.

My thoughts are that this current run will see an increase to the peak value of alt coins over total market cap.  

Given we are currently at 738% MC growth for alt coins compared to the start of the bull run, and the previous peak was at 2219% MC growth from the previous bull run, we still have a ways to go in terms of market cap growth of alt coins, and total crypto market cap.

Cheers

Does anyone else use the Exodus wallet and know anything about the IPO they have advertised? There is limited information available that I can see, as it is just an expression of interest at this stage.... 

I thought I would drop in a couple of interesting charts/tables I found in the WTO's 2020 World Trade Report.

There is a ton of interesting information/charts in the document (World Trade Report 2020: Government policies to promote innovation in the digital age (wto.org))

The WTO website itself also has lots of other resources available which look good but I haven't followed up on yet.

I found the first chart quite interesting as to the speed at which IT infrastructure growth is occurring in each sector.

The second chart is showing the rate of change of patent applications in the IT& communications space compared to total patent applications.

The final table is showing the top patent applicants by AI field which really gives an insight as to who is really pushing forward in this space!

Cheers