Sam Colt ExChangemaker

2,661

"So called Business Engineer"

If I would have to write a paper or thesis now for Uni I think id write something titled: 

"The impact of social media and popular culture on financial stock and investment strategies"

You could spend your time looking at Twitter and /wsb and analyse price movements of the popular Stonks like, TSLA, Signal, GME (gamestop) , Hertz, SPACE, PENN and probably a bunch of other stocks and perhaps also Bitcoin.  
 

Who knows you might get to intern for an Investor Relation team to help them create a better "narrative" after? 

If I had to grade you: Graduation secured. 

Jason Buck and Tyler Pearson have been talking to a handful of Volatility traders on RV. 

Jason recently interviewed Ben Eifert who has amassed quite a following on twitter and also runs a fund called QVR. 

Their conversation is quite a sandwich (24 pages or 1h16 min of podcast) but fun quite insightful. Since the topic of Vol is quite complicated and filled with jargon so I used Otter.ai to make a transcript of the interview. The transcript is like 95 ish % correct, so the spelling can be off or a word might be off but you should be able to read it because of context. I fixed the worst parts myself and added some highlights and notes for myself. 
 

one thing is clear most of what Ben is doing should be Labelled as "Do not try this in your PA". 
Still, it's interesting to hear what these VIX people do in their 40h+ work weeks 😂

Have fun; 

American's unlike Italians, really do pay their taxes. But me being non American have no idea how the US taxmachine works except that it's a big complicated topic and nobody in Murica seems happy about it. While I am reading this I think this data is already worth sharing. 

 https://www.ntu.org/library/doclib/2020/12/2018-who-pays-1-.pdf

If you have heard about Intel, AMD, Nvidea, taiwain semiconductor, ASML but you don't really know what it is they make, this primer is for you. 
At least read chapter 1&2: 

Two Tweets related to what our little monkey brain thinks the market will do and what the market actually did. 

 

For those like me that don't know the first thing about Uranium except maybe that ze Germans don't want it anymore, the French love it and the Iranians would be more than happy to use it and everyone hates them for it 

Here is a usefull primer: 

From a small Irish carrier, Ryanair has become the world's third and Europes most valuable airline by market cap (funny enough EU airline consolidation hasn't hurt them). In 2019 they carried 150Million passengers vs 130M for Southwest ($LUV) the US low-cost airline. This makes it one of the top 10 airlines in the world by passengers.

What I think everyone knows is that companies, where growth begets growth, are not the norm and that those that exist are very well known. Think Amazon, Costco, Wallmart but also vanguard or BlackRock. As they grow in size they share their scale advantage with their customers. It turns out its not as common a business model as I used to think. But the shareholder returns seem to be pretty good.

One has to ask why not hold companies with this business model in perpetuity? 

Interesting enough, due to Brexit all UK shareholders lost their voting rights. 😂🤷‍♂️.

What I would like to know is all the reasons people might not like this company (apart from the not enough legroom, and that nobody is actually happily flying Ryanair but keeps doing so anyway because they have by far the lowest price). 
 

If anyone has a good report/ article/ video anything beyond the public filings (I read the earnings call transcripts) to share on this company id be happy to read it. 

Especially trying to understand:
 

• How Further Consolidation of EU airlines impacts Ryanair. So far Airfrance-KLM alliance seems not to really put a dent into Ryanair. Other low cost airlines going bust due to C19 must be a good thing for Ryanair.
• How airline bailouts work, also why governments feel compelled to do so besides the obvious big job losses that come with airlines going bust. 
• Airline fleets, the good the bad the ugly
• the debt, it has a BBB rating (down from BBB+) has that been the going rate for airlines? Currently 
• The company has this EUR 5 Billion medium-term note programme, what is this? My understanding is that they are prevented to take on 5 Billion in medium-term loans, anything to add to this? 
• Airlines hedge their fuel cost, anything to be mindful of here? I understand Ryanair is hoping for lowish oil prices through 2021, while quite a few on RV are hoping for oil to go back to pre-covid prices. 

A presentation (21 sildes) that is divided into two parts. The first explains the basics about; 

► Monthly recurring revenue (“MRR”)

► Customer acquisition costs (“CAC”)

► Customer retention and churn rates

► Lifetime value of customers (“LTV”)

The second part is about issues that typically affect the above metrics, 

► Importance of gross margins

► Cancelled invoices

► Customers not using the software (or never going live)

► Deferred revenue “haircut”


source: https://www.mlrpc.com/services/due-diligence/