Looking over at 25 years of Russell 2000 history, the magnitude and timing of the current move up from the March 2020 bottom is unparalleled. I've identified all the big moves with minimal to no pullbacks, and none of them have moved up so sharply and quickly. You can see the percentage rise and number of days for each move. Interestingly, each of those moves was followed by a minimum 4-6 month decline (either a correction or an official bear market). And as we can see it took several more months after the decline just to make it back to prior highs. It would seem that we are currently on borrowed time, as we've exceeded all prior moves without at least a correction. Therefore, if the current situation rhymes with the past, then we are probably look at... at least... a 4-6 month decline. And a 15% to 20% decline would not seem out of the ordinary, from what we see on this chart. It would likely take much of the rest of the year to recover to previous ATH. And in comparison to these past up moves, ALL this current FOMO in the market seems like delusional mania. One doesn't need to fight this out of control freight train with shorts: Taking a Buddhist approach of non-involvement and non-attachment here would certainly seem to be the sensible thing to do.
