Bitcoin appears to be consolidating towards the CoinBase IPO on April 14:

i see two options on future price:

1. @Raoul Pal guidance on Bitcoin seeing downward pressure due to the CoinBase IPO plays out, and Bitcoin price hovers in a $10K to $20K range for another month or two.
2. Prior history rears its head again with the Halving Tracker showing a quick dip followed by a parabolic move upward as in the prior 2 cycles:

Note that Bitcoin‘s price also has an inverse head and shoulders pattern forming on the 8 hour, indicating that option 2 might be slightly more likely.

This pattern suggests a $72K target.

I still believe long term risk is to the upside, and am holding,  Are there other possibilities I am missing?

Risk is to the upside for bitcoin by successfully breaking out and retesting its descending wedge then returning above its multi month upward trend. A break above the $58k resistance level will complete the repair of the last breakdown, and should send bitcoin to $72k. My next target after $72k is $105k, but I do expect consolidation at $72k.
 

I have been tracking Bitcoin price predictions since September 2020, and thought I'd share a summary of the data collected below. I have data through 2037, but focused on the next 4 years as there are a good number of points to discuss in that range.

Plotting the maximum price prediction each year produces this chart:

The best regression fit in Excel is a 6th order polynomial, having a R^2 of 0.14, which is not so great.  At least the fit shows an uptrend! The data definitely disperses as the years increase, which is due to a few lines of thought that I've seen in the associated articles for 2021 prices, which I label thusly:

• Bitcoin Minimalists believe Bitcoin's value has mostly matured, and will stay the same or will head downward.  This is arrived at by past experience with bubbles, fad assets, or technical analysis (TA) that shows declining price.
• $150K Zealots believe in version 2 of PlanB's S2F model, other models, and/or have supporting TA showing prices between $100K and $200K.
• $300K Zealots believe in PlanB's S2FX model, other models, and/or have supporting TA showing prices between $200K and $400K.
• Bitcoin Maximalists believe that Bitcoin price action will reach prices much higher that other models or analysis for various reasons like price bubbles, super cycles, gold displacement this cycle, and/or currency debasement this cycle (not an inclusive list).

 Focusing on 2021, the peak price histogram shows the groups more succinctly:

Right now, it appears the most agreement is in the $150K zealots camp.  In fact, my TA shows I should be a $150K zealot, having a $166K price target:

That said, I'm slowly being swayed into the $300K zealot camp by Willy Woo, Jordan Lindsey (maybe @jordan lindsey), and arguments @Raoul Pal and other Bitcoin maximalists have made.  This acceleration is clearly shown on the Halving Tracker:

The tracker shows the current cycle ahead of the average of the last two cycles...it certainly looks like price is heading towards $250K in the late summer to fall timeframe.

I hope you enjoyed the data and analysis, and please let me know if I should be swayed from becoming a $300K Zealot.

This tweet containing the chart below by ChartsBTC in response to this tweet asking about Bitcoin Moon Math from Dan Held is worth sharing (and reading) as it shows all the multiples from prior cycles applied to the current cycle on a single chart. Note there are no price targets below $260K 😳. PlanB anyone?!?

MicroStrategy maybe worth placing on your watchlist if you are using it as a Bitcoin proxy.

Certain IRA custodians (Merrill Lynch, for example) do not allow trading of any Bitcoin trusts nor ETFs, forcing other Bitcoin proxies such as Galaxy Digital or MicroStrategy to be used.  Because of this, I have been tracking the MicroStrategy Bitcoin premium, which is now around 16%, and will near 0% around $600 assuming the current $49K Bitcoin price holds or rises.  This may be a good price level to add if MicroStrategy's price doesn't rise and/or Bitcoin's price doesn't fall.  

Here is the premium trend...percent premium on left

For those interested, here is the formula I use in TradingView

100*((NASDAQ:MSTR-123.88)*9587000/90859-BITSTAMP:BTCUSD)/BITSTAMP:BTCUSD

This formula removes the value of MicroStrategy’s core business, leaving the Bitcoin premium to be measured.  Numbers of interest:

• 100 is multiple to convert to a percentage
• 123.88 is the August 10th closing price of MicroStrategy before adding Bitcoin to their treasury on August 11
• 9587000 is number of outstanding shares
• 90859 is the number of Bitcoin held

Caveats:

• This formula does not account for organic growth of MicroStrategy’s core business since August 10th.
• This formula’s longer-term trends are incorrect as MicroStrategy’s share count and Bitcoin counts have been changing.
• A risk to this trade would be the Fed not address rising yields at Powell's speech today.
• There maybe future share dilution risk due to convertibles (See @Dani Ben Yair concern in discussion)
• I am not taking this trade as I am already fully positioned, though, I likely would if I were not.

Enjoy, and let me know if you see any errors.

Has anyone else been watching Ben Mallah on YouTube? 

I’m not a commercial real estate guy, but Ben strikes me as the polar opposite of @Raoul Pal: Ben is emotional, while Raoul is cerebral, yet both are very successful in their professions. They are also both entertaining to watch and learn from.

I’d quite enjoy a YouTube or Real Vision interview of Ben and Raoul discussing their paths to success, especially as they are so different, yet successful. 

Several people are telling Ben to invest in Bitcoin, but he won’t listen. Perhaps Raoul could convince him of Bitcoin’s value in that interview,

I projected 4 more advance/declines on Bitcoin’s current bull run based on the 6 large advance/declines from the 2016/2017 Bitcoin bull run with the average gain/loss percentages from the 2020/2021 bull run. This projection peaks at $373K and settles at $266K. This projection‘s final values are strikingly similar to PlanB’s S2FX model. Perhaps we will see PlanB’s model come to fruition!

Projection:

2016/2017 advance declines

Unpublished research from Terra Quantum AG was reported (Bloomberg, Mint Business) asserting that AES encryption maybe at threat from quantum computing annealing.  This news is likely not worth panicking over until peers can review the research, but it’s definitely worth keeping an eye on.

Applicable quote:
 

The company said that its research found vulnerabilities that affect symmetric encryption ciphers, including the Advanced Encryption Standard, or AES, which is widely used to secure data transmitted over the internet and to encrypt files. Using a method known as quantum annealing, the company said its research found that even the strongest versions of AES encryption may be decipherable by quantum computers that could be available in a few years from now.

Vinokur said in an interview that Terra Quantum’s team made the discovery after figuring out how to invert what’s called a “hash function," a mathematical algorithm that converts a message or portion of data into a numerical value. The research will show that “what was once believed unbreakable doesn’t exist anymore," Vinokur said, adding that the finding “means a thousand other ways can be found soon."

I came across Quiver Quantitative on WSB a few months back.  At that time, they were scrapping WSB sentiment and gov official trading data into dashboards that was somewhat useful.  Today, I checked the site, and found a significantly expanded site offering the topical dashboards below.  The site is free, but requires registration.  I’ve found a few valuable nuggets here and there.  Enjoy!

GOVERNMENT

Senate Trading
House Trading
Government Contracts
Violations and Fines
Political Beta
Product Recalls

CONSUMER INTEREST

Corporate Twitter
WallStreetBets
Wikipedia Page Views

ENVIRONMENT, SOCIAL, AND GOVERNANCE

Insider Trading
CEO Compensation
Work Visas
Corporate Flights
Shared Ownership
Facility Emissions

OTHER TOOLS

COVID-19 Research
Patent Search