This coming week I see a set up similar to late April in 2008. The primary ingredients here are the weakening of the Euro vs the dollar and weakness in European stocks. This basic situation encourages European investors to flood into US stocks. From mid April to the end of September in 2008 the Euro weakened by about six percent with the S&P 500 strengthening by almost 10%. That combo would give you up To 17% returns in less than six months if you swapped out your euros for dollars and then back again. During the same period the STOXX 50 lost around four percent. Currently we have the Euro breaking down out of its previous trading range and a resurgence in lockdowns harming the recovery prospects. If US equities maintain or rise over the first few days of next week while the Euro weakens I think we start to see a self reinforcing cycle of European investors selling off their domestic stocks for US stocks, further weakening the Euro and strengthening US stock markets.
I’m not yet at the point of putting price targets here, but this is what I think has the highest chance of driving markets over the next month until the US elections.