In my previous posts from Oct20 about GBTC low premium opportunity:
https://exchange.realvision.com/post/gbtc-low-premium-opportunity-5f7de2b80b23a767be73e3af
and GBTC high Premium Alert from Dec20:
https://exchange.realvision.com/post/gbtc-high-premium-alert-5fde3df4ad1185460f7a3685
I showed you how you can take advantage of the changing premium of GBTC to get more profits out of your bitcoin exposure.
In the last days, GBTC is trading at a discount. Now it make sense to move all of your Bitcoin exposure to GBTC, as it trades at about 5% discount, which will pay for more than 2 years of fees (2% annually). This is a better holding now than buying futures that trade in contango and cost more than 1% a month, to roll over.
You can also just make arbitrage by buying GBTC long and shorting Bitcoin futures, but you need to consider the margin you need for that (I guess your broker will want margin for both sides of the trade).
If you want to calculate the discount, just multiply the Bitcoin price by 0.00094690 which is the current bitcoin holding per GBTC share as of 3/3/21:
You can also check it here:
Trading at discount is quite rare for GBTC as you can see in this chart from ycharts:
https://ycharts.com/companies/GBTC/discount_or_premium_to_nav
Â
Last thing, when you see an arbitrage you should ask yourself why does it exist.
I believe that accredited investors that bought it at NAV 6 month ago and had to wait 6 month for the lock-up period to end, have made huge amount of profits (4-5X), so they just want to take profit and are willing to sell at a small discount.
Another reason could be some fund like ARKW have to sell because of redemptions.
Even if it will stay at discount for a while (as it does not currently operate a redemption program, but as soon as ETF will be approved, I guess they will allow that), it is better instrument to hold your Bitcoin exposure now, than by using Bitcoin Futures.
Â
By the way, for the Ethereum fans, ETHE is trading at discount too...
