This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the biggest risks for financial markets. Inflation may be the headline grabber at the moment, but it’s the impact on bond yields and the US dollar that really matter. If they don’t move, markets can tolerate higher inflation. So far, bond yields have responded well to the inflation scare, but a move in either direction by the dollar could now be a problem. In this week’s Chatter, Tom Roseen, Head of Research Services at Refinitiv Lipper, outlines the fund flows that have been driving the market this year.
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In the late 1980s, a giant bubble economy propelled Japan to new heights of extravagance and excess — but there's always a crash. Get the backstory on the psychological thriller Earthquake Bird's glamorous setting. Watch Earthquake Bird, Only on Netflix: https://www.netflix.com/title/80244457
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the subdued reaction of yields to the current bout of inflation and a corporate sector that appears to be gearing up for buybacks rather than growth. Can tech stocks underperform if they are seeing the lion’s share of the buyback programs? Perhaps the action of the corporate sector is the clearest clue that most CEOs think that growth and inflation are transitory after all? In this week’s Chatter, Michael Smith, Global Sales Strategy & Execution – OEMS & Equities at Refinitiv, looks at the buyback and CAPEX data for the S&P500 in 2021.
Marko Papic, partner and chief strategist at Clocktower Group, joins Michael Green to discuss how and why geopolitics will have major effects on markets in the coming years with a particular focus on U.S.-China relations. They discuss everything from Taiwan and the issue of semiconductor supply chains to other actors like Russia as well as the merits and faults of Cold War analogies. They also touch on what Papic calls "the most important macro chart of this cycle" and the domestic issue of income inequality and the resulting policy outcomes. Finally, Green and Papic help viewers understand the magnitude of the green energy initiatives and what Papic believes are the best and worst ways to gain exposure to this megatrend. Filmed on March 31, 2021.
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the sudden rise in reserves that banks are depositing with the Federal Reserve. Is there too much cash, or too few things to buy? There is something wrong with the system and it could be that commercial banks are reaching their QE limits. In this week’s Chatter, Oliver Dancel-Fiszer discusses the growing investor optimism for opportunities in Africa, where demographics, trade agreements, and technology are helping to build a new set of businesses that are breaking these economies away from their historical reliance on commodities.
Hear Minsky explain financial fragility in his own words at an event in Colombia, November 1987. Read more about the event in Institute Working Paper No. 917, " Two Harvard Economists on Monetary Economics: Lauchlin Currie and Hyman Minsky on Financial Systems and Crises": http://www.levyinstitute.org/publicat...
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the latest surge in inflation data, the opportunity this presents for precious metals such as silver and gold, and the likely response from policymakers. Gold and silver are breaking out of their short-term consolidation patterns and this could be a great opportunity to look at the high-octane mining names. In this week’s Chatter, Robin Marshall, Director of Fixed Income Research at FTSE Russell outlines the criteria that need to be fulfilled for the Fed to taper its bond purchases.
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the rising fear of extreme inflation that is sweeping some parts of the market based on the buildup of income and savings in the US. Could this see a surge of demand that drives prices higher and how permanent could this be? Is copper a legitimate hedge to this outcome? Fiscal policy is extreme by historical standards but most of the inflationary pressure has resulted from supply chain bottlenecks. Until wages start to pick up, inflationary pressures should remain a short-term phenomenon.
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the latest Chinese data and the signs that the authorities are starting to tighten their policy and reign in the excess credit from last year’s support programs. The troubles at asset manager Huarong could be a sign that policymakers will now tolerate higher levels of credit impairment. In this week’s Chatter, Refinitiv’s lead analyst for carbon markets, Ingvild Sorhus, outlines the challenges that the European market faces, now that speculators are starting to take an interest.
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the likelihood of inflation data taking off from here as we start to see the impact of base effects from last year’s pandemic bust. Economists are upping the ante with bolder and bolder forecasts for growth, but these impacts may be very short-lived. The dollar and yields may be self-correcting, and China’s restocking may now be complete. In this week’s Chatter, LSEG’s Head of Investment Research EMEA, Marlies Van Boven discusses the rise of smart beta strategies, which are becoming an increasingly important part of the investment landscape.